Bernstein Robinhood Analysis: Prediction Markets Will Surpass Crypto Revenue in 2026
Bernstein has raised its price target for Robinhood to $160, predicting that prediction markets will surpass the platform’s cryptocurrency revenue by 2026.
Investment giant Bernstein has upgraded its outlook for the popular trading platform Robinhood (HOOD). Analysts raised the company’s price target from $130 to $160, pointing to a generational shift in the trading habits of retail investors. With this shift, Robinhood is expected to evolve from being just a stock or crypto broker into a massive financial ecosystem.
According to the report, the second quarter of 2026 will be a historic milestone for Robinhood. Revenue generated from prediction markets is expected to reach $150 million, surpassing cryptocurrency revenue—which is expected to decline during the same period—for the first time. Bernstein predicts that this new market will reach a volume of $1.7 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 64 percent.
Prediction Markets and Robinhood Chain on the Rise
The Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange has achieved significant success, reaching a trading volume of 3.5 billion contracts since its launch in May. In particular, FIFA World Cup markets accounted for 93 percent of this volume, highlighting the scale of user interest. On the other hand, the company’s Arbitrum-based Layer-2 network, Robinhood Chain, has drawn attention by exceeding $400 million in total value locked. This network is expected to reach an annual decentralized exchange volume of $200 billion.
Bernstein analysts describe the current stagnation in the crypto market as a cyclical weakness rather than a structural problem. Experts noting that a potential recovery in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could provide additional gains emphasize that Robinhood’s true strength lies in its distribution capacity. With 27 million funded accounts and 14 million active users, the platform can deliver new products to wide audiences at nearly zero cost. Robinhood is stated to be the most advantaged player in a massive $70 billion fee pool covering areas such as prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized stocks.