Bitcoin at Six-Year Low Against S&P 500: Outperformance Rate Drops to 38%

Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 on only 37.8% of trading days over the last three months, falling to a six-year low in this category.

Data shared by Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled on a daily basis against the S&P 500. Over the past three months, BTC managed to outperform the U.S. index on only about one out of every three trading days. Consequently, the daily outperformance rate has dropped to its lowest level in Glassnode’s six-year observation period.

According to Glassnode’s calculations, Bitcoin’s 90-session cumulative excess return against the S&P 500 dropped to -30.1 points. This indicator represents the cumulative performance difference between the two assets across sessions over the same period. In other words, not only did Bitcoin lead on fewer days, but it also trailed the index over the total of the last 90 sessions. The -30.1 point difference highlights the recent relative loss in performance.

Bitcoin’s outperformance against the S&P 500 has declined

The excess return Bitcoin achieves on days it outperforms the S&P 500 remains at a higher level. However, Glassnode noted that this gain differential has shown a downward trend over the years. The chart shows that the strong green spikes from previous periods have been more limited in recent years. This indicates that while BTC gains more aggressively during sessions when it takes the lead, this advantage has weakened over time.

The second data series reveals that the share of sessions won by Bitcoin has fluctuated in the past and has recently dropped to 37.8%. This rate shows that BTC failed to outperform the S&P 500 in approximately two-thirds of the sessions over the last three months.

Glassnode left open the question of whether this prolonged weakness of Bitcoin against the S&P 500 marks the beginning of a new trend or is merely a temporary phase.