Bitcoin Correction May Be Nearing Its End: VanEck’s 8/12 Signal Active, ETF Inflows Strengthened

VanEck reported that the Bitcoin correction may be nearing its end, noting that 8 out of 12 capitulation signals have been activated and the market is approaching an accumulation phase.

VanEck’s senior investment analyst Patrick Bush and head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel based the assessment on a set of indicators called the “Bitcoin Capitulation Check.” According to the researchers, 8 of the 12 signals are currently in the capitulation zone, while all signals have entered this zone at least once within the last three months.

VanEck interpreted this picture as “Bitcoin price capitulation has been observed” and that the market may be approaching an accumulation phase. While Bitcoin was trading at approximately $64,700 on Tuesday, it has remained within the $58,000-$66,500 range since early June and is 48% below its peak of approximately $126,300 in October 2025.

Possibility of an accumulation phase for Bitcoin is strengthening

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of nearly $300 million on Monday. This figure stood out as the strongest daily inflow seen by the funds since May 5, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand.

Conversely, the amount of Bitcoin held for more than a year decreased by 356,000 BTC in the last 30 days, falling to 11.84 million BTC. Thus, the share of long-term investors in the circulating supply dropped below 60% for the first time in months.

VanEck stated that in the previous three bear markets, the average time from peak to maximum drawdown was 12.7 months. With Bitcoin currently in its approximately 11th month since the peak in early October, historical cycles suggest a transition to accumulation in the September-November period. However, the firm emphasized that these indicators are not definitive buy signals and that 90 and 180-day returns during similar periods remained below average.