The crypto asset manager’s 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Expectations report, published on October 28, forecasts an annualized return of 34.3% over the next decade. The company’s base-case target of $1.6 million is based on assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of certain markets.

Two changes behind the higher Bitcoin target

Bitwise left its expectations for Bitcoin’s future market share unchanged from last year. Instead, it raised its estimate of the size of the global store-of-value market in 2036 from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and its estimate of the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.

The base case assumes Bitcoin will capture 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. Applying the same share assumptions to larger markets therefore pushed the price target higher.

Based on Boston Consulting Group’s estimate of approximately $147 trillion in assets managed by institutions, the company calculates that allocating 1% to 5% to Bitcoin over the next decade could create $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in potential demand. The report puts the annual value of new Bitcoin supply from mining at approximately $14 billion.

2036 scenarios range from $131,000 to $3.67 million

In Bitwise’s bearish scenario, Bitcoin captures 2.5% of the store-of-value market and reaches $130,686 in 2036. In the bullish scenario, that share rises to 50%, and the price forecast reaches $3.67 million. The wide gap between the scenarios shows how sensitive the outcome is to adoption assumptions.

The report’s 34.3% annualized return forecast is about five times the average 6.7% forecast for U.S. equities, calculated from projections by JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard. It is also about three times the 10.8% forecast for private equity investments.

Bitwise expects lower volatility

The company lowered its average volatility estimate for the next decade from last year’s 32.9% to 27.8%. Research Director Ryan Rasmussen said sharp declines in Bitcoin could continue, but the company expects these fluctuations to ease as institutional adoption deepens.

Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan acknowledged that much of the recent demand for stores of value has flowed into gold and that buying in Bitcoin ETFs has slowed. Nevertheless, he said institutions have continued to increase their Bitcoin investments during the downturn, and Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market has risen from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.

The report says that after falling to approximately $58,000 in June, Bitcoin recovered by about 40% and rose above $80,000. Bitwise puts the decline from the peak above $126,000 in October 2025 at approximately 53%, comparing it with drops of 86%, 84%, and 77% in previous major cycles to point to a more limited correction.

Bitwise Raises Bitcoin’s Target to $1.6 Million: What Changed? isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Analysts speaking to CoinDesk believe institutional demand could support Bitcoin over the long term, but they do not agree on whether that support will turn into a strong rally before the end of 2026. At the time the source article was published, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,500.

Bitwise Sees $100,000-Plus as Possible

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, expects Bitcoin to end the year at a higher price, potentially above $100,000. He bases this view on institutional demand through ETFs and corporate purchases, a shift toward assets that can preserve their value amid inflation and rising public debt, and clearer crypto regulations.

Rasmussen nevertheless expects volatility around a possible Fed rate hike in late October and the U.S. midterm elections in November. He believes a strong rally will be difficult amid this uncertainty, but that higher prices could come into view once the market gets past this period.

Do Rate Expectations Need to Change for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000?

Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, has a more cautious base case: Bitcoin trading in the $85,000–$95,000 range toward year-end. According to McCarthy, a return above $100,000 would require expectations of a rate hike in December to give way to expectations that rates will be held steady; falling oil prices and inflation should also support this shift.

The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, while market pricing cited by McCarthy put the odds of another hike in December at around 75%. Data released on October 14, showing consumer prices rising 0.6% month over month and core prices rising 0.3%, also made the outlook more challenging. More than half of the headline increase came from gasoline prices.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, also points to the tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. If price increases slow, the Fed may have more room to respond to weakness in the labor market; if inflationary pressure persists, tight monetary policy could continue to weigh on Bitcoin.

Short Positions Could Close if Bitcoin Breaks Above $90,000

Luca Invernizzi, a senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura’s crypto subsidiary, is not convinced by the rebound from summer lows, citing low volume, weakening ETF inflows, and slowing corporate purchases. However, he views the substantial clearing of leveraged positions in Bitcoin more positively.

McCarthy also notes that bullish positioning is now less crowded. Funding rates in perpetual futures hovering at or below zero and the fact that August’s rally came more from short covering than new long positions are among the signs of this shift in positioning.

According to Invernizzi, a decisive break above $90,000 could trigger a new wave of short covering by investors betting on a decline. The resulting buying could also support further price gains.

New Buying Is Needed for a Sustained Rally

A Citi research note says the total crypto market capitalization rose from around $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter, institutional ETF flows turned positive, and activity in exchanges, stablecoins, and digital asset infrastructure recovered.

Butterfill notes, however, that inflows slowed after $11.1 billion flowed into investment products from mid-July onward. He attributes this to uncertainty rather than a deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals and emphasizes that new buying must continue for a sustained rally.

According to the analyst, concerns about public finances could increase demand for Bitcoin over the medium term. But for that view to translate into a significant price increase, investors need to be seen allocating capital to Bitcoin regularly.

Can Bitcoin Return to $100,000 by Year-End? What Are Analysts Waiting for to Turn Bullish? isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

According to The Block, Hougan assessed three different scenarios for how AI could affect the economy in a note he sent to clients on October 14. He said he sees long-term supportive factors for Bitcoin whether AI investment accelerates growth, the bubble bursts, or the economic gains remain limited.

Why does he expect a rally after a crash?

In Hougan’s potential crash scenario, data center operators are unable to repay their debts, insurance companies holding AI-related bonds come under pressure, and the economy is pushed into a recession reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.

The Bitwise executive puts the likelihood of a government bailout in such a situation at nearly 100%, given AI’s geopolitical importance. He believes that a rapid expansion of the money supply after the initial wave of selling could trigger a strong recovery in Bitcoin.

Hougan says that if the AI push he describes as the largest infrastructure investment in U.S. history collapses, the scale of the resulting bailout could also be enormous. The rally outlook here is based not so much on the crisis itself as on the monetary response to the crisis.

What changes if AI accelerates growth?

In the second scenario, AI boosts productivity and economic growth while making software, legal, design, pharmaceutical, and diagnostic services cheaper. Hougan argues that, in response, assets with limited supply, such as gold and Bitcoin, could gain value.

In the milder third scenario, the economy continues along with 3% growth and 4% interest rates; debts from AI investments are repaid, and conditions come close to a soft landing. Hougan says that even under these conditions, ETF inflows, growing adoption through financial advisors, and the resources companies and governments allocate to Bitcoin could support demand.

He expects a rally but does not rule out a sharp drop

Hougan also believes that crisis-response support measures could come into play if the Fed raises interest rates enough to cause a recession. If rates are not raised and inflation increases, he suggests that more investors could turn to Bitcoin as a store of value.

However, this outlook does not mean prices will rise uninterrupted. Hougan points out that Bitcoin fell 50% in a few days during the COVID panic in 2020, emphasizing that some scenarios could involve a difficult period before a recovery.

The threat of quantum computers, coordinated government pressure, and a renewed turn toward fiscal austerity in Western countries are also among the risks that could weaken the bullish thesis. Hougan considers these possibilities unlikely but does not rule them out entirely.

What Happens to Bitcoin if the AI Bubble Bursts? Bitwise Sees a Twist! isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) has pushed its assets under management (AUM) above $1 billion. Data from The Block shows that this amount accounts for more than half of the total Solana ETF assets.

The milestone indicates sustained interest in investment products even as the Solana price remains below its peak. While BSOL shares are trading approximately 40 percent below their listing price, Solana (SOL) has also declined about 60 percent from its all-time high.

Solana ETF Inflows Reach $1.7 Billion

While total inflows in the Solana ETF category have reached $1.7 billion, the trading volume of spot Solana ETFs since launch has exceeded $13 billion. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that despite a sharp decline in the category during the first half of the year, there has been no prolonged period of outflows.

Bitwise emphasized that the fund reaching $1 billion occurred under particularly challenging market conditions. The size of the fund demonstrates that capital flows into Solana investment products have continued despite price drops.

Institutional access to Solana also continues to expand. Charles Schwab, which manages $12 trillion in assets, is preparing to offer spot Solana trading to its clients in the coming months.

One Fund Reaches $1 Billion in Solana ETFs: Now Manages Over Half of All Assets isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within the next decade, a forecast that echoes previous targets shared by Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood.

Such predictions are typically based on the assumption that Bitcoin will capture a portion of the gold market or attract trillion-dollar capital pools like global pension funds. However, these calculations often fail to sufficiently account for the opportunity cost—the yield forfeited on US Treasuries by holding money in Bitcoin.

Interest Rate Obstacles for Bitcoin’s $1.3 Million Target

The 30-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% this year, reaching its highest level since 2007. This means that every dollar held in non-yielding assets like Bitcoin misses out on a potential yield of approximately 5%. Although Bitcoin’s spot price in dollar terms rose to $126,000 in 2025, surpassing the previous cycle’s peak of around $70,000, its price adjusted for the 30-year bond yield failed to surpass the 2021 peak for the first time.

The BTC/30Y ratio has also fallen below the neckline of a three-peak head-and-shoulders pattern. This structure, where the middle peak is the highest, signals a decline when the support line between the two retracements is broken. According to a study by Thomas Bulkowski covering over 2,800 trades, the pattern has a failure rate of 19%, with an average decline of about 16% following confirmation.

This outlook doesn’t mean Bitcoin cannot rise permanently in dollar terms. However, for seven-figure price targets to materialize, the interest rate environment needs to become as supportive as it was during the 2020-21 period; the current outlook, however, is moving in the opposite direction.

Bitcoin’s $1.3 Million Target Questioned: 30-Year Treasury Yield Exceeds 5% isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Lombard has announced the details of the new yield model to be implemented for LBTC. Moving away from the existing Bitcoin staking model, the company will direct funds into a covered-call option strategy managed by Bitwise. In this method, Bitcoin will be utilized to generate additional income through the writing of options representing the right to buy at a specific price.

The new strategy will cover a maximum of 60% of the assets backing LBTC. The targeted yield rate was announced as a net 2.5% APY per year in Bitcoin. Custody services for the Bitcoin used within the strategy will be provided by Anchorage Digital Bank and Kraken Institutional.

New yield plan for LBTC begins

Lombard will initially test the implementation with a $10 million pilot program. While the pilot program is scheduled to begin the week of August 17, the target date for the full deployment of the strategy has been announced as September. In this way, the company plans to scale the new system gradually.

Lombard stated that existing LBTC holders do not need to take any action for this transition. While users are not expected to move their assets or submit a new application, the source of the yield will transition from the Babylon Bitcoin staking model to the Bitwise-managed option strategy. With this change, LBTC’s yield structure will be based on the option income generated by the strategy rather than directly on Bitcoin price movements.

Lombard Shifts LBTC Yield Source: Targets 2.5% Net Yield in Bitcoin isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated in a note published Wednesday that crypto assets other than Bitcoin are still priced lower than they should be. According to Hougan, the market has not yet fully adapted to the new model where protocols generate revenue and reflect this income back to token holders.

Hougan said the era of networks generating high economic activity but not transferring this revenue to token holders is over. He noted that in the new era, the primary metric for valuations will be revenue, just as it is for stocks and bonds. This trend, which he calls “revenue fever,” refers to protocols using fee revenue for token buybacks or burns.

Revenue and Token Burning Take Center Stage in the Crypto Market

Hougan’s most notable example was Hyperliquid. The CIO stated that the protocol generated over $800 million in annualized revenue last year and allocated approximately 99% of fee revenue to HYPE buybacks and burns, noting that $1.3 billion worth of HYPE has been burned since November 2024.

The note also mentioned that Uniswap generates approximately $100 million in annualized revenue, while Aave aims for $30 million in AAVE burns, equivalent to about 20% of its annual revenue. Pump.fun has generated $328 million in annualized revenue and burned $370 million worth of PUMP as of April 2026, while Lighter has bought back approximately 6% of LIT’s circulating supply and generates $67 million in annualized revenue.

Hougan mentioned that Solana’s SGP-0003 proposal could increase fee burns by up to 14 times, and transaction activity on Aptos nearly tripled with a 10-fold increase in gas fees. The prediction that valuations could double is based on the condition that this transformation is embraced by investors; the provided data has not been independently verified and the statement does not constitute investment advice.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Valuations of Revenue-Generating Crypto Assets Could Double isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Matt Hougan, a veteran figure in the cryptocurrency world, stated that Bitcoin will attract trillions of dollars in institutional investment over the next decade from a wide range of sources, from financial advisors to central banks. According to Hougan, this process represents the beginning of a long-term transformation that will turn Bitcoin into a mainstream financial asset. Emphasizing that institutional adoption will follow a gradual path, the expert noted that financial advisors and family offices would make large-scale allocations in the initial stage.

Signs of this shift are already visible in 13F filings submitted for spot Bitcoin ETFs and in moves by giant banks like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to make Bitcoin more accessible to their clients. Over time, massive capital pools such as endowments, pension funds, and even central banks are expected to join this flow. Even a shift of just 1% of the $100 to $200 trillion in assets managed by global institutions into Bitcoin is considered sufficient to support these targets.

The Math Behind the $1.3 Million Target for Bitcoin

Hougan’s optimistic forecast is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will capture a 25% share of the expanding store of value market. Recalling that the gold market has grown from $2 trillion to $30 trillion since the ETF launch in 2004, the expert calculates that Bitcoin’s price could rise to the $1.3 million level with similar growth momentum. Stating that crypto reached $2 trillion with retail, Hougan emphasizes that the path to a $20 trillion market cap is only possible with institutional capital.

On the other hand, Hougan argues that while MicroStrategy remains the largest institutional holder with 842,138 units (BTC), it will no longer be the primary driver of market demand. Noting that the company’s advantages have weakened as spot ETFs provide a direct alternative, the expert states that for long-term investors, the real question is not finding the bottom price, but whether the peak has arrived.

Bitwise Executive Issues Massive Bitcoin Prediction: $1.3 Million by 2035 isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

One of the leading figures in the cryptocurrency market, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, argues that a silent but deep revolution is taking place in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). In an interview on July 30, Hougan emphasized that DeFi projects are moving beyond being mere governance tools and that platform revenues are starting to flow directly to token holders. This change is fundamentally altering the way DeFi assets are valued while opening the doors to a new era for investors.

Hougan cites the Hyperliquid platform as the most concrete example of this transformation. Hyperliquid, which uses a massive 99 percent of its platform revenue to buy back its own token, is receiving great praise from the market. Similarly, Uniswap (UNI) is strengthening its value capture mechanisms, while Aave is moving towards a more integrated structure by eliminating the distinction between company equity and the token. Projects such as Morpho and Chainlink (LINK) are also joining this movement by improving their tokenomics structures.

A New Era in DeFi Tokens: The Shareholder Model

According to Hougan, this structural change brings DeFi tokens to a position similar to corporate shares in the traditional financial world. Now, token holders do not just vote on the project’s future; they also receive a financial share of the platform’s success. This allows tokens to become real income-generating assets rather than just speculative tools.

However, the renowned executive states that the market has not yet fully realized this critical development and has “not woken up.” Noting that many DeFi assets still remain at low valuations despite this new model, Hougan points out that balances could shift as the market begins to price in this structural change. This implies that under current market conditions, some assets are trading well below their intrinsic value.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Explains the Silent Revolution in DeFi Altcoins: The Market Has Not Woken Up Yet isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

With only a few days left before the US Congress goes on recess, the crypto world’s attention has turned to the Clarity Act regulation. The Senate has only a three-day window for the bill to pass before the summer recess between August 10 and September 11. However, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan argues that this legislative gridlock is not a disaster scenario, but rather could create new opportunities for the sector.

SEC Regulations Could Be a Catalyst for Crypto

Hougan pointed out that if the bill fails to pass, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins could step in to introduce much more innovation-friendly rules. Emphasizing Atkins’ willingness in this regard, Hougan stated that the rules issued by the agency could be a more effective catalyst than a bipartisan bill coming out of Congress. According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 23%, down from 75% in May.

Maintaining his optimism about the sector’s future, Hougan reminded that giants like BlackRock, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, and Visa are already involved in the blockchain ecosystem. Stating that even if the Clarity Act does not pass, crypto will make uninterrupted progress for at least another two and a half years with the rules the SEC will set, the executive said that after this point, no authority “can put the genie back in the bottle.” Hougan nonetheless added that the passage of the bill remains the most ideal scenario for the US economy and investor protection.

Expectations for Critical Crypto Legislation Drop to 23%: Bitwise Executive Points to SEC for New Era isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Bitwise, one of the leading asset management firms in the cryptocurrency market, announced the rebalancing operation for its flagship Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW). This update, based on market capitalization and asset weight optimization, led to strategic shifts within the fund’s composition.

Standing out as the fund’s new star, Hyperliquid (HYPE) was included in the list following its massive performance in the first half of 2026. Gaining 165% in value since the beginning of the year, HYPE proved its worth by generating $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue. Following these strong metrics, the asset secured a weighting of approximately 0.95% within the fund.

HYPE and XLM Era in Bitwise Portfolio

As part of the restructuring, Stellar (XLM) was also added to the list, while Polkadot (DOT) and Avalanche (AVAX) were excluded. Looking at the current portfolio allocation, Bitcoin maintains the lion’s share at 77.54%, followed by Ethereum at 13.04%. XRP and Solana (SOL) hold positions with 4.21% and 2.78% shares, respectively, while the newly added HYPE found its place in the index at a price level of $67.00.

In the lower tiers of the fund, projects such as Cardano (ADA), Stellar (XLM), Chainlink (LINK), Litecoin (LTC), and Sui (SUI) are featured. Notably, Sui (SUI) managed to keep its spot in the index despite being at the bottom of the list with a 0.17% share. This move by Bitwise is closely watched by institutional investors, as it directly reflects shifts in market liquidity and performance.

Bitwise Portfolio Shakeup: Two Major Altcoins Dropped, Replaced by These Assets isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

As uncertainty continues in cryptocurrency markets, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan made promising statements regarding Bitcoin (BTC). Hougan stated that the sharp sell-off in Strategy company’s preferred shares under the ticker STRC is a classic indicator that the market bottom is approaching. Emphasizing that such “end-of-cycle” dynamics are painful but necessary, the expert noted that investors should keep an eye on the autumn months.

At the end of June, the Bitcoin price fell below the $60,000 level, testing its lowest points of 2024. According to Hougan, one of the primary reasons for this drop was the turbulence in STRC shares, which Strategy used to finance its Bitcoin purchases. Initially valued at $100, these shares fell to around $75 amid market distrust. However, Strategy’s announcement that it could sell Bitcoin if necessary for dividend payments and its presentation of a new framework somewhat eased liquidity fears in the market.

Institutional Demand and the New Bull Season

Hougan predicts that Strategy will no longer be the only dominant buyer in the market, as institutional giants take over the baton. The interest of major banks like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo in Bitcoin ETFs, along with Texas’ strategic reserve plans, are among the strongest signals of this new era. Despite the harsh market conditions dominated by red tones in visuals, the expert believes that the more than $50 billion in cash flowing into ETFs since 2024 will keep the market resilient.

Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe, shared a similar view, stating that July could be a turning point for the transition from a bear market to a bull regime. Dragosch predicts that the market will bottom out earlier than general expectations, likely before October. Hougan, tracking the fear and greed index and open interest data, reminds that the real rally will begin once the “weak hands” in the market are flushed out.

Bitwise CIO Declares ‘End of Cycle’ for Bitcoin: Points to That Date for New Bull Season isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.