Polymarket News - Koin Bülteni

$36 Billion Shock to the World’s Largest Prediction Platform: Illegal Gambling Allegations

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:59:52 +0000

New York state has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi for operating illegal gambling, seeking at least $36 billion in damages.

Kalshi, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, has entered into a serious legal battle with the state of New York. In a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James, it is alleged that the platform is conducting an unlicensed illegal gambling operation within state borders. The Attorney General’s office has applied to the court for the company to cease its activities, provide full refunds to users, and pay astronomical fines.

The complaint states that Kalshi allows betting on sporting events, cultural events, and elections. State officials argue that these activities legally fall under the definition of gambling and that the platform exposes individuals under the age of 21 to serious financial risks. Allegations that the company has evaded tax obligations are also among the claims. New York Governor Kathy Hochul emphasized that these laws exist to protect consumers and combat gambling addiction.

A Critical Legal Battle for Prediction Markets

This lawsuit has also brought the jurisdictional conflict between the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the states to a peak. The CFTC made a counter-move to block New York’s intervention by applying to the court, arguing that it is the sole authorized body over these markets. While Kalshi had previously faced similar obstacles in the states of Michigan and Washington, it received permission to continue its activities in Minnesota. Experts state that the $36 billion in damages sought by New York could increase further if calculated based on the company’s global earnings.

Kalshi proved its massive growth in the industry by reaching a trading volume of $33 billion in June. However, this large volume has caused regulators to pay even closer attention. Attorney Daniel Wallach points out that, thanks to the broad powers held by the New York Attorney General’s Office, this lawsuit could pose an existential threat to the prediction market industry. The court’s decision will play a key role in determining the future legal status of digital assets and prediction contracts.

$36 Billion Shock to the World’s Largest Prediction Platform: Illegal Gambling Allegations isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Critical Victory for Two Giant Platforms in the US: Ban Attempt Overturned by Court

Selim Kuşçu — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 23:52:56 +0000

A federal judge in the U.S. has issued a significant ruling in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket by halting Minnesota’s law banning prediction markets.

A development that has resonated widely in the crypto and finance worlds has occurred. Minnesota’s move to block prediction market operators was temporarily halted by the intervention of a federal judge. Judge Katherine Menendez ruled that the law enacted by the state conflicts with the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and that this situation violates the companies’ rights.

This litigation process brought together not only the platforms but also the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC took a common stance against Minnesota’s law criminalizing prediction markets. The plaintiffs argued that the contracts on these platforms are actually “swaps”—a type of derivative transaction where two parties exchange financial instruments—and that the regulatory authority for these transactions lies with the CFTC, a federal agency, rather than with the states.

Critical Legal Victory for Prediction Markets

In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the plaintiffs have a high likelihood of succeeding on the merits. She emphasized that a significant portion of the transactions listed on the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms should be considered under federal law. The judge added that if this ban were not halted, the companies would suffer irreparable harm. The need for regulatory clarity, frequently voiced by industry representatives at major events like Consensus, was once again brought to the forefront by this court decision.

This preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the case is resolved on its merits. The court’s stance plays a decisive role in the future of prediction markets and the authority of federal agencies over this field. While Minnesota’s attempt at a ban has been thwarted for now, all eyes are on the final outcome of the lawsuit.

Critical Victory for Two Giant Platforms in the US: Ban Attempt Overturned by Court isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Blow to $33 Billion Prediction Giant from Washington: Temporary Ban on Sports Contracts

Selim Kuşçu — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 05:20:00 +0000

A court in Washington state has temporarily halted the popular prediction market platform Kalshi from offering contracts for sports events, citing a violation of state gambling laws.

Tensions between prediction markets and state laws continue to escalate in the United States. Washington state judge John McHale suspended the platform’s sports-oriented transactions, ruling that the Kalshi platform was conducting illegal gambling activities within state borders.

According to court documents, the state’s request for a preliminary injunction was granted, preventing Kalshi from offering betting-like services to Washington consumers. Judge McHale emphasized that public interest and consumer protection outweighed the platform’s commercial activities. This decision was made despite Kalshi’s defense that federal law preempts state laws.

Legal Battle Heats Up in Prediction Markets

This decision is not the first for Kalshi; the platform has previously faced similar obstacles in states such as Michigan and Nevada. While company officials argue that states do not have the authority to regulate prediction markets, the general trend in the courts has turned in favor of the states. Experts point out that state governments have been found justified in 19 out of 23 cases filed so far.

Despite these ongoing legal proceedings, Kalshi maintains its global leadership in terms of trading volume. Reaching a volume of $33 billion in June, the platform managed to surpass the $13.95 billion volume of its closest competitor, Polymarket. However, this new ban in Washington seriously threatens the platform’s growth strategy across the US and the future of its sports-oriented contracts.

Blow to $33 Billion Prediction Giant from Washington: Temporary Ban on Sports Contracts isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

World Cup Post-Mortem on Polymarket: Two-Thirds of 194,000 Addresses Incurred Losses

Selim Kuşçu — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 22:04:55 +0000

With the conclusion of the World Cup, trading volumes in prediction markets have rapidly declined, revealing that a large portion of users betting via Polymarket ended up in the red.

Prediction markets, one of the most popular sectors in the cryptocurrency world recently, have entered a natural cooling-off period following the completion of major sporting events. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, the intense interest sustained throughout the tournament has given way to a quieter landscape. This situation is viewed not as a collapse, but rather as the expected normalization process of the market after a massive event.

According to data, the total open interest across both platforms fell by 20% from its peak of $2 billion to $1.5 billion. Sharp pullbacks were observed particularly in sports-oriented volumes. Sports volume on Kalshi dropped 55%, falling from $9 billion to $4 billion, while on the Polymarket side, this decline reached 70%, retreating to the $740 million level. The fact that sports betting accounted for 80% of the total volume during the tournament clearly highlights the main reason for this drop.

Two-Thirds of Polymarket Users Incurred Losses

On-chain data shared by DeFiOasis presented striking results regarding the balance of gains and losses in prediction markets. Two-thirds—approximately 66%—of the roughly 194,000 addresses that bet on the World Cup winner emerged from the process with a loss. Although the profit or loss for most users remained under $100, the performance of some major players was noteworthy.

Analyses show that 54 different addresses generated profits of over $100,000, with 5 of them crossing the $1 million threshold. On the other hand, 43 addresses experienced losses of more than $100,000, ranking among the tournament’s biggest losers. This stagnation in prediction markets is expected to continue until a new major development, such as the U.S. midterm elections in the fall.

World Cup Post-Mortem on Polymarket: Two-Thirds of 194,000 Addresses Incurred Losses isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Bernstein Robinhood Analysis: Prediction Markets Will Surpass Crypto Revenue in 2026

Selim Kuşçu — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:01:30 +0000

Bernstein has raised its price target for Robinhood to $160, predicting that prediction markets will surpass the platform’s cryptocurrency revenue by 2026.

Investment giant Bernstein has upgraded its outlook for the popular trading platform Robinhood (HOOD). Analysts raised the company’s price target from $130 to $160, pointing to a generational shift in the trading habits of retail investors. With this shift, Robinhood is expected to evolve from being just a stock or crypto broker into a massive financial ecosystem.

According to the report, the second quarter of 2026 will be a historic milestone for Robinhood. Revenue generated from prediction markets is expected to reach $150 million, surpassing cryptocurrency revenue—which is expected to decline during the same period—for the first time. Bernstein predicts that this new market will reach a volume of $1.7 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 64 percent.

Prediction Markets and Robinhood Chain on the Rise

The Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange has achieved significant success, reaching a trading volume of 3.5 billion contracts since its launch in May. In particular, FIFA World Cup markets accounted for 93 percent of this volume, highlighting the scale of user interest. On the other hand, the company’s Arbitrum-based Layer-2 network, Robinhood Chain, has drawn attention by exceeding $400 million in total value locked. This network is expected to reach an annual decentralized exchange volume of $200 billion.

Bernstein analysts describe the current stagnation in the crypto market as a cyclical weakness rather than a structural problem. Experts noting that a potential recovery in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could provide additional gains emphasize that Robinhood’s true strength lies in its distribution capacity. With 27 million funded accounts and 14 million active users, the platform can deliver new products to wide audiences at nearly zero cost. Robinhood is stated to be the most advantaged player in a massive $70 billion fee pool covering areas such as prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized stocks.

Bernstein Robinhood Analysis: Prediction Markets Will Surpass Crypto Revenue in 2026 isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Did He Use Trump’s Speeches for Betting? Scandalous Allegations Against 10-Year Employee

Selim Kuşçu — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 06:30:18 +0000

Gabriel Perez, who has served as Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator for nearly 10 years, is accused of using confidential information about the president’s speech scripts to generate illicit profits in prediction markets.

While prediction markets have reached massive popularity worldwide, integrity debates on these platforms have taken on a new dimension with “next-generation manipulation” allegations. According to information shared by ABC News, Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of the content of Trump’s upcoming speeches to place bets on the Kalshi platform. These allegations, which fall under the scope of insider trading, came to light through negotiations with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

According to the allegations, Perez targeted critical moments over a three-month period, such as the World Economic Forum in Davos and State of the Union addresses. It is claimed that when Trump deviated from the script, the operator noticed these deviations instantly and withdrew his bets mid-speech. While these suspicious transactions detected by Kalshi’s security team were reported to regulators, White House officials maintain that the institution has strict ethical rules.

Trust Crisis in Prediction Markets and Regulatory Steps

This incident is not the first case of abuse in prediction markets; it was previously revealed that a Google engineer used search data to earn $1.2 million via Polymarket, and a U.S. soldier placed bets using classified information. The complex and volatile nature of price charts in these markets makes auditing such technical manipulations difficult. The CFTC has not yet shared an official confirmation or denial regarding the ongoing process.

Following these developments, the U.S. Congress has introduced legislative proposals to prevent public officials from betting on government policies. While the Senate has banned its own members from trading on these platforms, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are implementing new security measures to prevent insider trading cases. The future of prediction markets seems to depend on how effectively such manipulations can be prevented.

Did He Use Trump’s Speeches for Betting? Scandalous Allegations Against 10-Year Employee isimli makale Selim Kuşçu tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Crypto Whale’s World Cup Nightmare: Wrong Decisions Wiped Out $11.6 Million

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 15:00:11 +0000

A Polymarket user experienced a major financial disaster, losing $11.6 million in just 10 days as a result of incorrect predictions regarding World Cup matches.

While decentralized prediction platforms gain popularity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the high risks taken in these venues can sometimes lead to losses that are difficult to recover. A user trading on the Polymarket platform failed to achieve the expected success with their strategy centered on the World Cup, the football world’s biggest organization.

According to Lookonchain data, this investor, using the pseudonym “coldsway,” opened a total of 15 different positions within a 10-day period. Succeeding in only 4 of these predictions, the user’s win rate remained at 26.7%. Generating a massive total trading volume of $48.19 million, the investor suffered a total net loss of $11,631,125 due to incorrect decisions.

$5 Million Wiped Out in a Single Prediction

The investor’s most notable loss occurred in a prediction for a Morocco victory. Allocating approximately $4.95 million for this position, the user lost the entire amount when the match did not result as desired. Similarly, another $3 million move on a Canada victory also ended in failure. These consecutive massive losses burned a serious hole in the user’s portfolio.

Among the user’s rare successful moments were the draw prediction between Australia and Egypt and positions for the Colombia match. Although they earned a total of $4.23 million from these successful predictions, the total lost amount of $15.86 million overshadowed this gain. This example has once again proven how critical risk management is when trading in prediction markets and cryptocurrency-based platforms.

Crypto Whale’s World Cup Nightmare: Wrong Decisions Wiped Out $11.6 Million isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Americans Lead on US-Banned Polymarket: Flocking to These Bets

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:00:09 +0000

Despite legal restrictions and access blocks in the US, American users have executed transactions worth $571 million in political bets on the prediction platform Polymarket over the past year.

Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction platforms in the crypto world, remains a primary destination for investors in the country despite being officially closed to US users. A new report by on-chain analytics firm Allium has proven that Americans are the most active audience globally in the platform’s political markets. Data shows that the volume generated by US-based wallets in the last 12 months has surpassed the $422 million volume of its closest follower, Hong Kong.

While Polymarket blocks US users via IP addresses due to legal regulations, the platform’s cryptocurrency-based structure renders these obstacles ineffective. In a system that requires no bank intermediary or identity verification process, users can easily trade using a VPN and a crypto wallet. The analytics firm revealed this data by examining the on-chain movements of wallets rather than their IP addresses.

Americans’ Intense Interest in Geopolitical Bets

The betting preferences of American users paint a significantly different picture from the rest of the platform. While election bets lead across the platform, US investors allocated 46 percent of their volume to geopolitical developments. Specifically, interesting topics such as war scenarios involving Iran and the attire of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy were among the areas that garnered the most interest from US wallets.

The data shows that bans, instead of ending participation, have merely pushed transactions outside of oversight. US wallets are seen to have a correct prediction rate of 81.9 percent, performing almost identically to other countries. Consequently, demand for risky markets restricted by local regulations continues to grow without borders, thanks to the anonymity provided by cryptocurrencies.

Americans Lead on US-Banned Polymarket: Flocking to These Bets isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

$6 Million Profit in 5 Days: World Cup Trader Hits 93% Win Rate

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 09:30:08 +0000

A user betting on World Cup matches on Polymarket secured a massive windfall, turning $1.5 million in capital into $7.68 million in just five days.

While prediction markets are gaining more attention every day in the cryptocurrency world, one investor’s strategic moves have captured everyone’s interest. A mysterious user, who deposited $1.5 million into the Polymarket platform via a new wallet created five days ago, successfully multiplied their fortune in a short time with predictions on World Cup matches.

According to data shared by the on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain, this user placed a total of 15 different bets within a short period. Achieving success in 14 of these predictions, the investor reached an impressively high win rate of 93%. When wallet movements are examined, it is observed that following initial transfers in USDT, the balance on the platform skyrocketed.

Million-Dollar Earnings via Polymarket

Profile data for this investor, trading under the username “1two1two,” shows that the total profit realized has exceeded the $6.2 million mark. Their high-volume transactions involving matches between the Netherlands and Morocco are particularly noteworthy. According to the data, the user managed to secure a payout of over $1.2 million in a single instance from their prediction that Morocco would advance.

The investor’s transaction history proves that they utilized not only outright match results but also detailed markets, such as whether a match would end in a draw. A transfer of approximately $1.5 million made via Relay.link five days ago has transformed into a massive portfolio as of today. This success story once again highlights the high profit potential offered by crypto-based prediction platforms.

$6 Million Profit in 5 Days: World Cup Trader Hits 93% Win Rate isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Mysterious Investor Makes a Fortune in 24 Hours: Earns $8.5 Million with Just 2 Trades

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:00:09 +0000

A cryptocurrency investor has achieved massive success by earning $8.47 million in profit in just a single day through strategic trades executed on prediction markets.

High-risk, high-reward trades continue to whet the appetite of investors within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. An investor using the username “blunttedge” garnered significant attention with moves made on platforms where predictions are placed on the outcomes of sporting events. According to data shared by the on-chain data analytics platform Lookonchain, this user created a new wallet and unlocked a multi-million dollar profit opportunity in a short span of time.

The investor’s first major move began with a football match between Japan and Sweden. After investing $7.19 million on the possibility of a Sweden victory or Japan failing to win, the user earned $4.38 million when the match ended in a 1-1 draw. This successful start provided more than enough capital and confidence for the investor’s next move.

$19 Million Trading Volume in Prediction Markets

The second major trade took place during the match between Ecuador and Germany. The investor opened a position worth $2.26 million on the scenario that Ecuador would win and Germany would not. Following Ecuador’s 2-1 victory, they earned an additional $4.09 million in profit from this trade. Reaching a massive trading volume of $19,001,699 in total, the user managed to claim the top spot on the platform’s leaderboard.

By bringing their total profit to $8,474,966 by the end of the day, the investor proved how effectively the liquidity and opportunities offered by crypto-based prediction markets can be utilized. These figures, reached with a newly opened wallet, sparked great curiosity among other players in the market. The profit rate achieved by the investor once again demonstrated how quickly open interest data in prediction markets can change.

Mysterious Investor Makes a Fortune in 24 Hours: Earns $8.5 Million with Just 2 Trades isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

World Cup Boosts Prediction Markets: Volume Surges 300% as Records Are Broken

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:30:20 +0000

While World Cup excitement has galvanized prediction markets, Polymarket volume surged by 300%, and Kalshi set a record with $1.16 billion in open interest.

The World Cup, the global sports world’s biggest event, has acted as a catalyst for crypto-based and regulated prediction markets. With the start of the tournament, investor interest has shifted toward football-focused markets, as industry giants Polymarket and Kalshi reached new heights in trading volume and user engagement.

The “Football” category on Polymarket recorded over $2 billion in volume during the first ten days of the tournament, showcasing a massive 300% growth compared to the previous period. The average daily trading volume, which was $53 million before the matches, skyrocketed to approximately $220 million with the tournament’s start. The fact that each match offers a short-term market concluding within 90 minutes ensures a rapid turnover of liquidity on the platform.

Kalshi and Polymarket Competition in Prediction Markets

This activity in prediction markets was not limited to volume alone; a historic threshold was also crossed in open interest data. Kalshi, a US-based and regulated platform, broke its record with $1.16 billion, surpassing the billion-dollar mark for the first time in total open interest. This figure shows that the platform has increased its open interest by 350% since the beginning of the year.

The fact that Kalshi’s open interest data is growing faster than its trading volume indicates that users are holding their positions for longer periods. This demonstrates that the platform has become a safe haven not just for instant trades, but also for institutional and high-net-worth investors. In particular, the possibility of direct dollar on-ramps and the fact that it is under regulatory oversight place Kalshi in a position to compete directly with traditional sports betting sites.

World Cup Boosts Prediction Markets: Volume Surges 300% as Records Are Broken isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.

Mark Zuckerberg Challenges Crypto Giants: Meta’s New Prediction Platform Move

Fatih TAŞDEMİR — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:00:14 +0000

Meta is working on a new application codenamed Arena to enter the prediction markets, which have seen a rapid surge in popularity recently.

Social media giant Meta is preparing to make a new move in the tech world by developing a platform named Arena, where users can make predictions about future events. According to a New York Times report citing internal sources, the team led by Mark Zuckerberg considers this project a high-priority effort from both an experimental and strategic standpoint.

Arena will allow users to make predictions on various topics, from politics to sports, entertainment, and world affairs. Unlike platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, which have made a significant splash in the crypto world, Arena is initially planned to use a point system similar to video games instead of real money. However, it is reported that the company has not completely closed the door to real-money betting in later stages of the platform.

A New Era of Competition in Prediction Markets

This move follows the massive success of the crypto-based platform Polymarket, particularly during the 2024 US presidential elections. Reaching billions of dollars in trading volume, these markets have captured widespread interest by becoming a focal point of mainstream political discourse. Meta’s interest in this space is not actually new; the company tested a similar product called Forecast in 2020 but shelved the project in 2022.

The growth in the sector is not limited to Meta; giants like Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, and Robinhood (HOOD) have also entered a fierce race to offer their own prediction products. On the other hand, this rapid growth has come under close scrutiny by regulators. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to meticulously examine whether such contracts are legal financial instruments or prohibited gambling activities.

Mark Zuckerberg Challenges Crypto Giants: Meta’s New Prediction Platform Move isimli makale Fatih TAŞDEMİR tarafından hazırlanmış ve koinbulteni.comda yayınlanmıştır.