Short-Term Bitcoin Holders are at a Loss: The Critical Threshold for Panic is Clear

In the Bitcoin (BTC) market, although short-term holders are currently selling at a slight loss, on-chain data shows that a major wave of panic has not yet begun.

Tracking investor behavior and market psychology in the cryptocurrency market is critical for understanding the future direction of price. Especially during this period where the Bitcoin (BTC) price is trying to stabilize around the $65,600 level, the SOPR data, which measures the profit and loss status of short-term holders, reveals that the market has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. The Short-Term Holder SOPR value is currently hovering around 0.995; this indicates that investors are disposing of their assets very close to their cost basis or with very small losses.

The 0.95 Level is the Critical Threshold for Bitcoin Investors

According to market analysis, this ratio needs to drop below the 0.95 level for a real atmosphere of panic to form among investors. Looking at historical data, it can be seen that this value retreated to the 0.90 level in August 2024, creating strong selling pressure in the market. Similarly, during the sharp declines experienced in April 2025 and November 2025, it is observed that panic selling by investors pushed below this critical threshold, leading the market through a challenging process.

The current chart structure points to a sensitive recovery phase rather than a full collapse. If the SOPR value manages to rise above 1.0 again, this will confirm that short-term holders have returned to profitability and market sentiment has improved. However, a new pullback toward lower levels like 0.92, as seen in the January and February 2026 periods, could mean that the risk of panic and selling pressure will increase again.