Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Ending? 79% of Supply Accumulated in a Single Group
The fact that 79% of the Bitcoin (BTC) supply is held by long-term investors and the reduction in selling pressure is considered one of the strongest signals that the bear market is nearing its end.
As the cryptocurrency market enters a recovery phase following consecutive sharp declines, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to stabilize around the $65,000 level. Research and analysis firm K33, in its latest report, highlights that long-term investors are accumulating assets at record levels, significantly reducing selling pressure in the market. This resolute stance by long-term investors reinforces the possibility that the market may have reached bottom levels.
According to the report, 79% of the circulating supply is now held in long-term investors’ wallets, reaching an all-time high. Specifically, the decline in the rate of “old” coins—those unmoved for two years or more—entering the market indicates that investors are unwilling to sell at current prices. While 1.18 million old coins became active in 2024, the fact that this figure remains at only 218,421 for the same period in 2026 proves how much selling pressure has weakened in on-chain data.
Historical Accumulation in Bitcoin Supply and Bear Market Signals
K33 Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde states that market conditions have stabilized and ETF outflows have slowed down. The decline of trading volumes to the lowest levels of the year stands out as a characteristic feature typically seen in the final stages of bear markets. Furthermore, the fact that 50% of the circulating supply was costed at prices above current levels—meaning investors are holding at a loss—historically indicates that the market is very close to its bottom.
On the macroeconomic side, eyes have turned to the interest rate decision announcement to be made by the Fed. Bitcoin’s high correlation with stock indices suggests that any change in interest rate policies could have major impacts on price. While some analysts keep the possibility of a drop to the $30,000 level on the table, the resolute stance of long-term investors continues to fuel optimism in the market.