Americans Lead on US-Banned Polymarket: Flocking to These Bets

Despite legal restrictions and access blocks in the US, American users have executed transactions worth $571 million in political bets on the prediction platform Polymarket over the past year.

Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction platforms in the crypto world, remains a primary destination for investors in the country despite being officially closed to US users. A new report by on-chain analytics firm Allium has proven that Americans are the most active audience globally in the platform’s political markets. Data shows that the volume generated by US-based wallets in the last 12 months has surpassed the $422 million volume of its closest follower, Hong Kong.

While Polymarket blocks US users via IP addresses due to legal regulations, the platform’s cryptocurrency-based structure renders these obstacles ineffective. In a system that requires no bank intermediary or identity verification process, users can easily trade using a VPN and a crypto wallet. The analytics firm revealed this data by examining the on-chain movements of wallets rather than their IP addresses.

Americans’ Intense Interest in Geopolitical Bets

The betting preferences of American users paint a significantly different picture from the rest of the platform. While election bets lead across the platform, US investors allocated 46 percent of their volume to geopolitical developments. Specifically, interesting topics such as war scenarios involving Iran and the attire of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy were among the areas that garnered the most interest from US wallets.

The data shows that bans, instead of ending participation, have merely pushed transactions outside of oversight. US wallets are seen to have a correct prediction rate of 81.9 percent, performing almost identically to other countries. Consequently, demand for risky markets restricted by local regulations continues to grow without borders, thanks to the anonymity provided by cryptocurrencies.