World Cup Post-Mortem on Polymarket: Two-Thirds of 194,000 Addresses Incurred Losses

With the conclusion of the World Cup, trading volumes in prediction markets have rapidly declined, revealing that a large portion of users betting via Polymarket ended up in the red.

Prediction markets, one of the most popular sectors in the cryptocurrency world recently, have entered a natural cooling-off period following the completion of major sporting events. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, the intense interest sustained throughout the tournament has given way to a quieter landscape. This situation is viewed not as a collapse, but rather as the expected normalization process of the market after a massive event.

According to data, the total open interest across both platforms fell by 20% from its peak of $2 billion to $1.5 billion. Sharp pullbacks were observed particularly in sports-oriented volumes. Sports volume on Kalshi dropped 55%, falling from $9 billion to $4 billion, while on the Polymarket side, this decline reached 70%, retreating to the $740 million level. The fact that sports betting accounted for 80% of the total volume during the tournament clearly highlights the main reason for this drop.

Two-Thirds of Polymarket Users Incurred Losses

On-chain data shared by DeFiOasis presented striking results regarding the balance of gains and losses in prediction markets. Two-thirds—approximately 66%—of the roughly 194,000 addresses that bet on the World Cup winner emerged from the process with a loss. Although the profit or loss for most users remained under $100, the performance of some major players was noteworthy.

Analyses show that 54 different addresses generated profits of over $100,000, with 5 of them crossing the $1 million threshold. On the other hand, 43 addresses experienced losses of more than $100,000, ranking among the tournament’s biggest losers. This stagnation in prediction markets is expected to continue until a new major development, such as the U.S. midterm elections in the fall.