A First on Binance Since 2021: Retail Investors and Whales Face Off
Data from Binance in the cryptocurrency market shows that retail investors are aggressively buying the dip, while whales remain on the selling side and are distributing their assets.
The latest data from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, points to a striking divergence in the market. While funding rates in futures trading are trending well below the market average, this proves that investors on the exchange generally expect a decline. On the other hand, it appears that retail investors see the price pullbacks as an opportunity and are providing significant liquidity to the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) funding rates on Binance have dropped to one of their lowest levels since 2021, remaining 370 basis points below the median value of other exchanges. This indicates that the exchange is structurally more short-heavy than OKX and Bybit combined. Despite this, TBSAI data, which measures buyer aggression, has surged sharply over the last 30 days. Retail investors are meeting every price drop with determination, creating buy-side pressure.
The Great Divergence Between Whales and Retail Investors
When examining the data, it is evident that while retail investors are buying, whales are distributing their holdings—meaning they are selling. The IWCR data, a whale divergence index, reveals that large wallets have been in a net seller position for weeks. On the other hand, leverage ratios in the market are at quite healthy and neutral levels. Following the overheating in April, the LIR score has returned to normal, minimizing the risk of a massive liquidation wave that could suddenly shake the market.
The current picture shows that the market is at a decision point. If the buying pressure and momentum from retail investors continue, a sharp upward move could be triggered by a squeeze of accumulated short positions. However, if the whales’ selling strategy prevails, it may be inevitable for the price to test lower levels. Experts emphasize that a new increase in leverage ratios will be the clearest signal of which direction the market chooses.