Bitcoin “Bear Cross” Alert: This Signal Could Trigger a Major 3-Year Rally

As the “bear cross,” a critical technical indicator for Bitcoin’s price, approaches, historical data suggests that this situation could actually be a bullish signal indicating that the bottom is near.

While investors in the cryptocurrency market wonder how much further the Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop, a historically accurate indicator paints a promising picture. Normally considered a pessimistic signal, the moving average crossover indicated the end of the decline and the onset of a new rally in Bitcoin’s past cycles. Current data proves that the downward room for price movement is limited and a recovery process could be underway.

Bitcoin Bear Cross and Historical Cycles

In technical analysis, when the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which shows the average price over a specific timeframe, drops below the longer-term 100-week average, it is called a “bear cross.” According to current chart data, the 50-week average stands at $89,771, while the 100-week average is at $88,397. The close proximity of these two lines indicates that the crossover could occur as of next week. However, contrary to what is feared, this situation symbolizes that the market froth has been cleared and selling pressure is nearing its end.

Looking back, similar crossovers in 2015, 2019, and 2022 each marked the market bottom and subsequently launched upward periods lasting approximately three years. Bitcoin price retraced from the $126,000 levels to the $60,000 range, setting the stage for this technical formation. Experts emphasize that with short-term speculators exiting the market, this signal could once again serve as a trigger for a bull season. Nevertheless, the impact of external factors such as macroeconomic data and ETF flows on the price continues to be closely monitored.