Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Capitulate Despite Losses: A Bottom Signal?
According to Glassnode’s latest report, the Bitcoin (BTC) price continues its bottom formation process by remaining below investor cost bases.
Leading cryptocurrency data provider Glassnode highlighted in its weekly on-chain report that Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. Having traded below the average investor cost basis for approximately five months, BTC continues to remain in a deep value zone. Analysts state that the market’s bottom formation process is progressing but is not yet complete.
One of the most striking data points highlighted in the report was the capitulation experienced by long-term holders (LTH). Data shows that this group’s daily realized loss peaked at the $280 million level. This situation proves that selling pressure in the market has reached even the most loyal investor group. On the other hand, the continuation of net outflows on the spot Bitcoin ETF side indicates that institutional interest has not yet returned to expected levels.
Options and Derivatives Data in the Bitcoin Market
While investors in derivative markets have entered a cautious bullish outlook, the options market is still pricing in downside risks. However, July data shows that implied volatility is calmer compared to the sharp sell-off periods in February and June. This is interpreted as a signal that the panic in the market is gradually dissipating and the price is seeking equilibrium.
Macroeconomic Outlook and Liquidity Status
A complex picture is emerging on the global liquidity front. While the M2 money supply in the US reached a record level of $22.8 trillion, the Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet, falling to the $6.7 trillion level. The fact that liquidity taps remain open on one hand, while the central bank continues its tightening policy on the other, suggests that pressure on the Bitcoin price may continue for a while.
Although the bottoming process is progressing, investors need to be patient for a full recovery. Data reveals that the market has not yet entered a full-fledged breakout trend, but the worst-case scenarios are starting to be left behind. In particular, long-term holders selling at a loss is historically considered one of the most important indicators of market bottoms.