Bitcoin Price and Open Interest Diverge: Leverage Unwinding Did Not Derail the Rally

While Bitcoin rose by approximately $3,000, open interest decreased by 21,042 BTC in three days, and the price remained higher despite the leverage unwinding.

On September 3, Bitcoin rose from approximately $77,300 to $81,300. On the same day, the total amount of open positions in futures contracts increased by 8,204 BTC. However, the outlook reversed following this move.

According to Santiment Intelligence’s analysis dated September 7, open interest decreased by a total of 21,042 BTC between September 4-6. The volume fell to approximately 300,500 BTC on September 6. This level remained 4.1% below the level recorded before the price movement.

Why did leverage decrease while Bitcoin was rising?

In the initial stage of the move, open interest increased from approximately 313,300 BTC to 321,500 BTC. During the same period, the total open interest in dollar terms reached $26.1 billion. Santiment noted that the dovish message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on September 3 coincided with the rally in Bitcoin.

However, employment data released on September 4 showed an increase of 162,000, compared to the expectation of approximately 55,000. Following this, positions began to unwind, and the amount of open interest fell first to 306,900 BTC, and then to 300,500 BTC over the next two days.

Bitcoin’s price, meanwhile, remained approximately $3,000 higher than its level on September 2. Santiment’s assessment focuses on the timing, which demonstrates that price does not necessarily have to move in tandem with open interest: first leverage increased, then positions decreased, while Bitcoin remained roughly $3,000 above its September 2 level.