Critical Threshold for Bitcoin Bottom Confirmation: A Weekly Close Above $82,470

According to a Galaxy Research study shared by Wu Blockchain, a weekly close above $82,470 for Bitcoin could provide stronger confirmation regarding the current cycle bottom.

The study examined six completed Bitcoin bear market cycles since 2011, as well as the ongoing downtrend. It compared the recoveries of the 50-day and 50-week moving averages in past bear markets. Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $77,500. The price stands 32.4% above the bottom recorded on June 30.

The primary level tracked in the research is Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average at $82,470. The shared chart shows that while Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day average, it remains below this long-term trendline. A moving average is a line that indicates the general direction by averaging prices over a specific period. Intraday price spikes above this line are not considered sufficient; the critical condition is for the week to close above this level.

The 50-Week Average Succeeded 11 Out of 13 Times

Historical data from the study revealed that 50-day moving average recoveries provide quick but unreliable signals. Out of 106 recoveries recorded during bear markets, 43 failed. Additionally, the first 50-day average recovery in every cycle also resulted in failure.

Therefore, breaking above the 50-day average alone does not mean the cycle bottom has been confirmed. In historical comparisons, a more reliable signal has been the price exceeding the 50-week average and ending the week above that level.

The 50-week moving average, on the other hand, presented a more stable picture. In 11 out of 13 recoveries, the bear market bottom was left behind, with only two signals failing. This result suggests that a weekly close above $82,470 does not provide a definitive bottom guarantee but offers a stronger confirmation threshold for the current cycle bottom.