Golden Cross Forms in Bitcoin: Only 3 of 12 Past Signals Lasted One Year

A golden cross has occurred in Bitcoin as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average, but historical data shows the signal hasn’t always brought about a lasting uptrend.

A golden cross, closely monitored by investors, has formed on Bitcoin’s price chart. According to data reported by CoinDesk, Bitcoin was trading at $78,650 at the time of writing, down 0.6% since the start of the day.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term price trend rising above the long-term average is tracked as a technical signal that strengthens bullish expectations for Bitcoin.

How successful has the golden cross been in Bitcoin’s past?

In Bitcoin’s history, this crossover has been seen 12 times so far. However, in only 3 of these instances did the signal remain valid for a full year. During these three periods, Bitcoin’s average 12-month return was 250 percent.

In the other nine measurable instances, the three-month average gain remained at 24.9 percent. The historical data shows that the golden cross has resulted in early bull traps far more frequently than long-term rallies.

Therefore, while the current crossover supports bullish expectations for Bitcoin, it does not offer a guarantee of a long-term rally on its own.