Senate Hurdle for Bullish Crypto Bill: Is the Probability Down to 50%?

Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the Clarity Act—crucial for the cryptocurrency market—becoming law by 2026 from 60% to 50% due to Senate schedule congestion.

Uncertainties regarding the legislative regulations closely followed by the crypto world continue to increase. Galaxy Research revised its estimates downward regarding the chances of the Clarity Act being passed due to the busy agenda in the U.S. Senate and the slowdown in negotiations. The firm’s head of research, Alex Thorn, stated that this change is entirely due to timing and Senate schedule constraints rather than the content of the bill.

Although the likelihood of passage was seen as higher at the beginning of June, the fact that a voting date has not yet been set makes the process difficult. Thorn emphasized that the legislative process in the Senate is multi-staged and that every passing week shortens this path. Additionally, it is stated that former President Donald Trump’s political pressure on other bills has indirectly affected the time allocated to the crypto bill by narrowing the Senate’s time.

Critical July for the Crypto Bill

This bill, which is high on the Senate’s July agenda, aims to clarify the jurisdictional sharing between the SEC and the CFTC. If the bill becomes law, primary oversight authority over most crypto assets will be given to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, if no official step is taken by early July, it is predicted that the process could slip to September and the approaching election atmosphere could make the vote even more difficult.

Galaxy experts argue that despite the decline in probabilities, a 50% chance for a bill of this size and complexity is still a significant rate. Industry representatives are focused on the moves the Senate will make after returning from recess to learn the fate of this move, which will provide a legal framework for the cryptocurrency market.