Bitcoin 50% Below Peak: Bottom Signal Strengthens, No Capitulation Yet

CryptoQuant data indicates that a structure associated with macro bottoms has formed in Bitcoin, but the level of full capitulation seen in the past has not yet been reached.

On-chain analysis shared by CryptoQuant.com focuses on the adjusted NUPL (aNUPL) metric, which shows the unrealized profit and loss status of Bitcoin investors. While Bitcoin is trading approximately 50% below its cycle peak, the aNUPL value for long-term investors has fallen below the market average and moved into negative territory.

NUPL measures the paper profit or loss on assets that investors have not yet sold. A negative indicator value signifies that investors are carrying losses before any actual sale occurs. Current data shows that losses are no longer concentrated only in the speculative segment but are also intensifying among long-term holders (LTH), who are generally considered more resilient. This structure bears similarities to past macro bottom periods but does not constitute a definitive bottom signal on its own.

Bitcoin shows a bottom signal, but no capitulation

CryptoQuant’s comparative chart reveals that during the bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022-2023, the LTH aNUPL value dropped to deeper and more persistent negative levels. While current losses are real, the indicator has not yet reached the severe “depression” zone of the past.

The upcoming price movement is therefore critical. Further price declines, a new retreat in LTH aNUPL, and an increase in realized losses could strengthen the classic capitulation outlook. Conversely, if Bitcoin forms a higher bottom while aNUPL approaches zero, it could suggest that long-term investor stress has peaked and losses are being absorbed. If institutional demand and a stronger investor structure can meet supply early, it is also possible for this cycle to bottom out with more limited damage compared to the past.