$7 Billion Traded While U.S. Markets Were Closed: What Do Binance’s Data Show?
Binance Research reported that billions of dollars were traded in crypto derivatives tracking the prices of traditional assets while U.S. markets were closed, with movements at the stock market’s open already reflected in these contracts beforehand.
The analysis, reported by Wu Blockchain, examines perpetual futures tied to real-world assets (RWAs). These contracts allow investors to trade on price changes in a relevant stock or underlying asset without owning it. Therefore, the volume examined consists not of direct stock trading outside U.S. market hours, but of derivatives transactions linked to the prices of these assets.
97% of the opening price gap was reflected in advance
According to the research, following the FOMC’s decision, 16 perpetual futures contracts tracking stocks were analyzed. A median of 97% of the price gap seen at the next U.S. market open was captured in the price movements of these contracts. In the same sample, volume outside regular U.S. trading hours reached $1.02 billion.
In other words, a significant portion of the price change seen when the stock market reopened had already been priced into the derivatives contracts. However, 97% does not indicate investors’ rate of return or their success in predicting future movements; it represents the median measure calculated for the 16 stocks analyzed.
$7.25 billion in volume around index rebalancing
Binance Research’s second example involved the market close around the rebalancing of the S&P index. During this period, $7.25 billion in trading volume was recorded across 198 perpetual futures contracts tied to traditional financial assets. This data covers a separate period from the 16-stock sample following the FOMC and a broader group of contracts.
The point highlighted by the research is not only the high volume: Investors can also respond to new developments through these derivatives while traditional markets are closed. As a result, expectations regarding the prices of stocks and other traditional assets can be traded without waiting for the exchanges to reopen.