69% of Accounts on This Platform Are Losing Money: Who’s Profiting?

In a study examining approximately 2.9 million individual accounts on Polymarket’s international platform, Galaxy Research found that 69% of accounts were losing money, with the group’s total losses reaching approximately $339 million.

The research is based on on-chain data of settled trades compiled by Stork and covers accounts whose trading frequency was considered consistent with human activity. The findings show that the majority of users on Polymarket lose money, while the share of profitable accounts varies depending on the topic being traded.

Of the accounts examined, 44.1% concentrated more than 60% of their activity in a single topic. However, outcomes varied significantly among those who focused on one area.

Technology and Science Had the Highest Profitability Rate

Among accounts focused on a single topic, 41.2% of those in technology and science were profitable. Although this was the highest rate among the specialized groups examined, the technology and science group had a smaller sample size.

Sports-focused accounts made up 47% of specialized accounts but had the lowest share of profitable accounts, at 25.1%. Thus, the largest area of specialization ranked last in terms of the share of profitable accounts.

Losers Were Less Likely to Return to Trading

The share of accounts that did not trade again within 30 days of a loss was 15.2%. After a gain, this rate stood at 6.1%; the rate of not trading after a loss was approximately 2.5 times the rate after a gain.

The median position size was approximately $14 for profitable accounts and $10 for those that lost money. No significant relationship was found between how long positions were held and profitability.