Price Signals Before the U.S. Market Opens? IMF Finds a Key Detail in Stock Tokens
More than 85 percent of overnight price movements in the stock tokens examined by the IMF were reflected in the prices of corresponding traditional stocks within five minutes of U.S. markets opening.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) new Global Financial Stability Report found that tokens representing U.S. stocks on the blockchain can generate price information even when the stock market is closed. The study, reported by CoinDesk, covers stocks such as Tesla, Nvidia, and Alphabet, as well as products based on the Nasdaq 100 index.
The research, which examined activity on centralized and decentralized platforms, found that more than half of trading took place outside normal U.S. market hours. About 80 percent of trades were for small amounts of a stock. This points to demand for both round-the-clock trading and access to the stock market with small amounts of money.
Overnight movements were reflected in the first five minutes after the open
One notable finding was the relationship between overnight trading in stock tokens and the opening of traditional markets. More than 85 percent of overnight price movements in the tokens were also priced into traditional stocks within five minutes of U.S. markets opening.
This finding suggests that trades made while the stock market is closed can carry pre-opening price information. However, the 85 percent figure in the research does not represent the success rate of a trading strategy; it describes the extent to which overnight price movements were reflected in traditional markets.
Round-the-clock trading comes with sharper price swings
The IMF also found that the stock tokens it examined were about 50 percent more volatile and significantly less liquid than their traditional counterparts. As a result, the ability to trade around the clock comes with sharper price swings for investors.
The report estimated the total value of tokenized real-world assets at about $65 billion as of July 31, with stock tokens valued at $2.3 billion. For comparison, the global stock market value used in the report was just under $160 trillion in 2025, according to SIFMA data.
Safeguards needed before the market grows
Tokenization has the potential to make record reconciliation easier, automate dividend payments, and speed up collateral transfers. However, these benefits are limited by the lack of interoperability between different platforms, blockchains, and payment systems.
The IMF also warned that automated margin calls, liquidations, and 24/7 trading could make market shocks harder to contain. Although the market’s small size currently limits the risks, the institution is calling for ownership rules, liquidity measures, and settlement arrangements to be developed before it grows further.