As new Bitcoin whales gain economic weight, their average cost of around $77,000 is drawing attention to whether this group remains in profit and to potential selling pressure.
According to CryptoQuant data from October 15, new whales’ share of the combined realized capitalization of new and old whales rose to 33%, up from around 18% in earlier periods of 2026. This brought the new group of large investors’ share of the measure to one-third.
New whales’ realized capitalization was calculated at 78,61 billion dollars, while old whales’ stood at 159,15 billion dollars. The indicator values coins at the price of their most recent on-chain movement; therefore, this ratio does not represent their share of Bitcoin’s supply.
Old whales’ share remained flat as new whales grew
Since September, new whales’ realized capitalization has increased, while that of the old group has generally remained flat. The analysis views this divergence as evidence supporting the view that large investors accumulated during the downturn and the recovery that followed.
However, transfers between addresses and investors moving between groups can also affect the measure. An increase in realized capitalization therefore should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of new cash inflows.
Why does $77,000 matter?
The realized price, which represents new whales’ average cost, fell from around $110,000 near the previous peak to approximately $68,000 at the end of August. With the recovery, it climbed back to around $77,000.
On the chart dated October 15, Bitcoin was at 82.134 dollars, while new whales’ cost basis was around 76.984 dollars. The price was therefore approximately 7% above this group’s average cost.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin holding above this changing cost zone over time, along with continued growth in new whales’ realized capitalization, could strengthen the accumulation thesis. A sustained loss of the area around $77,000 could put the group back in the red on average, increasing its willingness to sell during subsequent recoveries.
In that scenario, the amount of Bitcoin sent to exchanges and realized losses are among the indicators to monitor to determine whether the pressure is temporary.
Not investment advice.