As a spot demand indicator turns negative again, the decline in holdings among groups with more than 10,000 BTC suggests the recovery is not backed by a broad base of buyers.
A recent analysis published on CryptoQuant found that conditions that could support Bitcoin forming a bottom remain in place, but the improvement on the buying side is uneven. Demand in futures remains positive despite weakness in the spot market, while large holder groups are not moving in the same direction.
Futures demand stands out as spot buying weakens
A chart showing the 30-day cumulative change in demand shows that spot demand turned negative again after approaching zero. Positive demand in perpetual futures continued to support total demand. This divergence suggests that the recovery in direct Bitcoin purchases has yet to become persistent.
The spot-futures demand split used in the analysis is a different measure from the Apparent Demand indicator featured in an assessment published six days earlier, so the values of the two series are not directly comparable.
Holdings are declining among the largest whales
Over the past 60 days, the group holding 100–1,000 BTC has continued to accumulate on a net basis. Although a modest recovery has appeared recently, the pace of accumulation remains below its late-September peak.
Net holdings in the group holding 1,000–10,000 BTC are declining more slowly, approaching zero, while holdings in the group with more than 10,000 BTC are falling. Accumulation, therefore, is not widespread across all large holder groups. Because these rolling metrics also cover the period before October and can be affected by transfers between groups, it is not possible to interpret the entire decline in holdings as direct selling.
Bitcoin returning to exchanges needs buyers
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges rose from about 2.67 million BTC to 2.68 million BTC since the beginning of October. Reserves remain below January levels, but have started rising again since the beginning of the month. This movement may reflect changes in custody arrangements as well as preparations to sell.
An earlier analysis of selling pressure among those who bought Bitcoin near its peak showed that the share of exchange inflows made up of coins held for 6–12 months had declined. The new data show how much buyers and holder groups of different sizes are contributing to this picture.
According to the analyst, a sustained recovery requires spot demand to turn positive consistently, Bitcoin flowing to exchanges to find buyers, and accumulation to spread across more holder groups. Expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy also need to translate into actual purchases to support prices.
Not investment advice.