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U.S. Growth Surprises as Core Inflation Paints Two Different Pictures

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, while core PCE inflation slowed on a quarterly measure but rose to 3.1% year over year in September.

According to preliminary data reported by Wu Blockchain, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. The market had expected 3.2%. Growth accelerated from 2.2% in the previous quarter, indicating that economic expansion had picked up pace.

Quarterly core inflation slowed but still exceeded forecasts

The core PCE price index, which measures personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, rose at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the third quarter. That was slightly above the 2.4% forecast, but marked a slowdown from the 3.3% increase in the previous quarter.

Thus, third-quarter data showed growth accelerating while core price increases lost momentum compared with the previous quarter. The annual measure for September presented a different picture.

Annual increase reached 3.1% in September data

In September, the core PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month, in line with expectations. The previous month’s increase was also revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%; based on the revised data, the monthly rate of increase was unchanged.

The annual increase in core PCE rose from 3% to 3.1%, matching the market forecast. Thus, the year-over-year rise in September inflation came in as expected, while growth and quarterly core PCE results exceeded forecasts.

Not investment advice.

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