After falling below $76,000 during the U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin climbed toward $78,000, as analyst Markus Thielen said the next target in the recovery could be $82,000.
According to data reported by CoinDesk on the morning of November 4, Bitcoin erased its losses after an initial drop triggered by reports that Democrats would win majorities in both chambers of Congress. At the time of the report, BTC was trading at around $77,850, up 0.5% on the day.
Dick Lo, founder of TDX Strategies, attributed the reversal to a decline in political uncertainty as the election result became clear. According to Lo, although a Congress controlled by Democrats is seen as less favorable for crypto-friendly legislation, having different parties control the presidency and Congress could make major policy changes that might negatively affect the market more difficult. Trump’s executive orders and veto power could also play a role in this balance.
Bullish trades come to the fore in the options market
Nicolas Quatravaux, Paradigm’s EMEA head, said a Democratic victory had been largely priced in and that the main market shift was the elimination of uncertainty.
According to data shared by Quatravaux, the notional value of large Bitcoin options trades executed on Paradigm on Election Day reached $660 million, more than double the previous day’s total. Approximately $420 million in call options were bought, while $105 million in call options were sold. The notional value of these contracts, which can be used to bet on price increases, represents the size of the underlying Bitcoin position.
A similar recovery was also seen in U.S. stock futures. Nasdaq futures pared an earlier drop of more than 2%, reaching 28,200 points at the time of the report, down 0.3% on the day. Martin Lee, Head of Insights at DWF Labs, also pointed to similar price movements in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Analyst’s target is $82,000; first test is $78,000
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said Bitcoin was in oversold territory according to its daily stochastic indicator. Using this indicator, which is used to assess the speed and direction of price movements, Thielen forecast that the recovery could continue toward $82,000.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, emphasized that the next few trading sessions would matter more than the initial rally. According to Subburaj, if Bitcoin can hold above $78,000 while ETF outflows continue, that would indicate that other buyers are absorbing the supply being sold.
Subburaj said that if ETF flows also turn positive, they could provide an additional source of demand for the recovery. He noted that selling through ETFs had slowed significantly, while sustained net buying would put the rally on firmer ground.
Not investment advice.