Bitcoin has fallen about 10 percent from its September peak, while Glassnode reported that most coins held by short-term investors are now at a loss and that the $73,000–$76,000 range is critical to preserving the bullish structure.
Glassnode’s November 4 weekly report views Bitcoin’s pullback as a test of support following the rally that began in August. According to the analysis, excess profitability and leverage buildup in the market have declined, while a strong influx of new capital from traditional investors has yet to materialize.
At the start of October, more than 97.5 percent of the supply held by short-term investors who had acquired their coins within the past 155 days was in profit. That share has fallen to about 38 percent. As a result, most recently acquired coins are now being held at a cost basis above the current price.
A move below $73,000 could prolong the correction
According to the report, Bitcoin closed on November 3 just below the $77,700 level of the True Market Mean, which tracks the average cost basis of active investors. After falling as low as $76,100 overnight, it moved back above this indicator. The average cost basis for short-term investors stands at $75,700.
Glassnode says the $73,000–$76,000 range brings together the cost basis of short-term investors, the 200-day moving average, and the liquidation levels of leveraged bullish positions. Holding this zone could help keep the pullback as a correction within the broader uptrend. A sustained move below $73,000, however, could increase the likelihood of a more prolonged period of sideways trading.
If the share of short-term supply held at a profit rises above 50 percent again, that—along with price holding steady—could indicate that conditions for new buyers are improving.
Bearish positions are concentrated around $87,000
The decline from the September peak has cleared a significant portion of the leveraged long positions that had built up since August. This reduces the risk of cascading forced selling, while bearish positions opened above the price have increased.
The largest upper zone on the liquidation map is around $87,000. According to Glassnode, if the price turns upward, short positions may buy to close, potentially accelerating a move toward this area.
In the options market, open interest across all maturities includes about $18 billion in call options versus $13 billion in put options. This data alone does not show that all investors are betting on a rally; some investors sell call options to earn premiums against the Bitcoin they hold.
Trading volume is strong, but ETFs lack fresh inflows
The seven-day average of total volume across spot and ETF trading remains about 1.5 times the level seen between mid-July and mid-August. According to the report, this suggests that the trading interest that emerged during the August rally has not completely disappeared during the correction.
By contrast, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1 billion in net outflows over the two weeks through November 2. Outflows on November 2 alone reached $640 million.
Glassnode interprets this picture as a market in which existing capital within crypto is moving between assets and platforms, while only limited new money is coming from traditional investors. For this reason, alongside the support zone holding, stronger new demand is also being watched as a factor in whether the recovery can continue.
Not investment advice.