Bitcoin Slumps to $62,400: Exchange Data Signals Risks of a New Selling Wave
While the Bitcoin price has retreated to the $62,400 level, exchange data and funding rates indicate that selling pressure in the market could continue despite the decrease in open interest.
While Bitcoin’s recent pullback in the cryptocurrency market has accelerated the search for a “bottom” among investors, CryptoQuant data shows that caution is warranted. The leading cryptocurrency experienced a significant correction, dropping to approximately $62,400. During this process, the amount of open interest (OI) in futures markets fell to $22.4 billion, dropping below the 100-day average. While this indicates that excessive leverage in the market has been flushed out, other on-chain metrics do not yet provide a full recovery signal.
Distribution Risk and On-Chain Contradictions in the Bitcoin Market
Although a reduction in leveraged trades is generally considered a positive signal, exchange data paints a different picture. Exchange net flow turning positive with 2,900 (BTC) and exchange reserves rising to the 2.72 million (BTC) level proves that sell-ready supply is increasing. Additionally, funding rates remaining positive at approximately 0.006 indicates that investors are still heavily concentrated in long positions, which could create a new wave of liquidations due to “long-crowding” risk. The SOPR data, which measures the profitability of short-term investors, has dropped below 1, confirming loss-taking sales, yet it has not entered a sustained upward trend.
On the macroeconomic side, weakening expectations for the Fed‘s rate cuts and inflation concerns continue to suppress demand by triggering spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. If the Bitcoin price slips below the $62,000 level, a new selling wave could be triggered due to high funding rates and increasing exchange reserves. For a real recovery in the market, it is critical for exchange reserves to decrease, exchange flows to turn negative, and the SOPR data to once again settle above the 1 level.