Bitcoin Near $63.4K: 48.6% of Supply is at a Loss—What Does This Mean?

As the Bitcoin price trades around $63.4k, the decline of the Supply in Profit metric to 51.4% indicates that approximately 48.6% of the circulating supply is in an unrealized loss.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, Bitcoin’s supply in profit has dropped sharply from the nearly 100% level seen at the previous market peak to 51.4%. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price is consolidating around $63.4k, and approximately 48.6% of the supply is currently below investors’ cost basis.

To calculate the metric, the price at which coins last moved on-chain is compared to their current values. In this way, the overall profitability of the supply is measured based on the total of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) that are in profit or loss. According to the CryptoQuant chart, this reading stands out as a low for a period of over three years. A similar 51% zone was last seen in early 2023, during the recovery phase when Bitcoin was trading in the $16k–$20k range.

Capitulation pressure increases in Bitcoin supply

CryptoQuant considers this profitability squeeze below 55% as a transition from market euphoria to the capitulation zone. According to the analysis, while short-term investors who bought near the cycle top are facing heavy unrealized losses, long-term investors and the group defined as “smart money” may begin re-accumulating during these periods.

The report also states that speculative activity has been largely flushed out. According to CryptoQuant, the exit of over-leveraged investors and weak hands from the market allows coins to move to investors who buy at a lower cost and with higher conviction. Therefore, the Supply in Profit level approaching 50% is characterized in the analysis as a macro-scale reset.