Why Did Bernstein Lower Its Strategy Target to $350 While Projecting $150,000 for Bitcoin?

Bernstein has lowered its price target for the Bitcoin-accumulating Strategy from $450 to $350, even as it projects Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by mid-2027.

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani maintained their positive outlook for Bitcoin in a note published Wednesday. However, they updated the valuation calculation for the company’s stock, resulting in a divergent outlook for the two assets.

In Bernstein’s base case scenario, Bitcoin rises to approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and roughly $300,000 in 2029. The analysts use a model based on historical four-year Bitcoin cycles and production costs for this forecast.

A $500,000 scenario for Bitcoin in 2029

In an accelerated scenario, if institutional investors turn to Bitcoin more aggressively in anticipation of currency debasement, the target is set at $200,000 for mid-2027 and $500,000 for the 2029 peak.

This approach is based on rising debt costs as U.S. public debt reaches $40 trillion and the 40-year era of falling interest rates comes to an end. Analysts believe policymakers may prefer currency debasement over fiscal austerity. It was noted that 59% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in the last 12 months, while the price has recovered 28% in the last 10 days.

Why was the Strategy target lowered?

Maintaining its “Outperform” rating for Strategy, Bernstein lowered the price target from $450 to $350. The reasons cited were an updated Bitcoin cycle outlook and the company’s faster issuance of shares. New share issuance could dilute existing investors’ stakes in the company. Based on the $126.83 closing price, the new target indicates a 176% upside potential.

Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, representing approximately 4% of the total supply. It was stated that if Bitcoin strengthens and its preferred shares approach $100, the company could accelerate its purchases once again.