Bitcoin Surges to $81,500 but Profit-Taking Persists: How Sustainable Is the Rally?

As Bitcoin rises from $63,000 to $81,500, ongoing profit-taking and inconsistent US spot demand suggest that the rally could be structurally fragile.

Bitcoin price has recorded a strong increase over the past two weeks. However, CryptoQuant data shows that behind this move lies high profit realization and increased leverage rather than new buying demand. This outlook raises the possibility that downward movement could accelerate if support levels are broken.

On-chain Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) reached approximately $1.7 billion on August 21 and $1.6 billion on August 24. These levels rank among the year’s largest profit-taking events, excluding the January-February crash. Selling pressure did not subside after the peaks. Between August 26-30, daily realized profit remained positive in the $400-$650 million range.

US Spot Demand Failed to Support the Rise

Coinbase Premium, which tracks spot Bitcoin demand in the US, briefly turned positive on August 26-27. However, the indicator failed to remain consistently above zero. This situation reveals that new US purchases to fuel the rally have not yet strengthened in a stable manner.

Funding rates also climbed to 0.0225, the highest level of the year. While spot demand weakens, such high funding indicates an accumulation of leveraged positions rather than investors’ strong belief in the rally. Such a structure could amplify selling if support is lost.

The SOPR ratio rose from 0.78 to 1.45 between August 19-22, then fell back to the 0.94-0.98 range and rose above 1.1 at the end of the month. In the previous rally, this ratio had climbed as high as 2.8. CryptoQuant notes that the limited rise in the indicator as the price approaches $80,000 suggests the rally does not have as strong a structure as in the previous period.