Bitcoin Holds Above $77,000: Why Did Bad News Have a Limited Impact?
Bitcoin fell only 1.5 percent in September and remained above $77,000 despite interest rate hikes and regulatory uncertainty.
Bitcoin is moving through September, historically one of its weakest-performing months, with limited losses this time. Although the Bitcoin price, which rose nearly 25 percent in August to approach the $81,000 level, has fallen by an average of 3 percent in September since 2013, it dropped by only 1.5 percent this month. The quarterly gain stands at approximately 32 percent.
The pressure on the market is not just due to seasonal data. The Fed’s 25-basis-point interest rate hike, the failure of the CLARITY Act to reach the 60 votes required to advance in the Senate, and the oil price rising above $106 were among the developments that could create selling pressure on Bitcoin. While the Dollar Index exceeded the 100 level, the Bank of Japan also raised its policy rate to its highest level in 31 years.
Bitcoin reacted limitedly to bad news
The bill received only 49 support votes in the CLARITY Act vote. Although Bitcoin briefly dipped below $74,887 following the vote, it recovered quickly and rose back above $77,000. According to price data from the source, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,000 at the time of writing.
Mitchell Askew, Head of Blockware Intelligence, evaluated Bitcoin’s limited reaction despite two negative developments as a sign that sellers are losing strength. According to Askew, the fact that such news can no longer pull the price down suggests that a large portion of investors who wanted to sell may have closed their positions earlier.
Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, stated that rising interest rates do not always result negatively for Bitcoin. Dori said that if the increase in bond yields raises concerns about currency devaluation and state-sourced risks, it could support demand for stores of value such as Bitcoin and gold.
On the regulatory side, despite the failed vote in the Senate, a new development occurred. The US Securities and Exchange Commission announced an innovation exemption for tokenized security platforms that meet certain conditions. The regulation provides a framework that allows eligible platforms to trade shares on the blockchain.
September seasonality still creates pressure for Bitcoin
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has historically lost an average of 2.5 percent in value during the 38th week of the year and has risen only four times during this week. In contrast, CoinDesk data shows that Bitcoin has risen by an average of 77 percent in the final quarter of the year. Therefore, the current picture indicates resilience against the flow of bad news on one hand, while suggesting that seasonal pressure could continue for the coming week on the other.