A Bitcoin Streak Unseen Since 2012 Is Within Reach: What Happened Next?

If Bitcoin also closes September higher, it will have ended July, August, and September all in positive territory. According to CoinDesk’s comparison, the only previous example of this was in 2012, but what followed was not a continuous rally.

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin rose 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $86,140, while its gain since the start of September stood at 10.9%. September is not over yet, so the three-month picture is not final.

The rarity here is not Bitcoin rising in any three consecutive months; it is each of July, August, and September—the three months of the year’s third quarter—closing with a gain. In the history CoinDesk reviewed, this calendar pattern appeared only in 2012. That year, Bitcoin gained 41% in July, 6.4% in August, and 24.4% in September.

First a decline, then a rally of more than 2,000%

The streak ended in October 2012, when Bitcoin closed the month down 9.7%. According to CoinDesk’s daily price analysis, the price bottomed at $10.17 on October 26. The 165-day rally that began from that low took Bitcoin to $230 in April 2013, with gains of more than 2,000%. So the major rally did not begin directly after September’s close, but after October’s decline.

This single example is not enough to say that a decline followed by a rally will happen again this year. With only one historical example of the same calendar pattern, it is not possible to draw a reliable statistical conclusion about future price movements.

The market’s structure has also changed. In 2012, when Bitcoin was worth about $10, the market was shallow, and a small number of buyers could influence the price more easily. Today, Bitcoin is an asset with much greater institutional participation and liquidity in spot and derivatives markets. This difference makes it harder for early-period percentage gains to be repeated on the same scale.