Has Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Playbook Broken? Glassnode Weighs the Odds of a Major Drop

Glassnode said Bitcoin has suffered a more limited loss in the current bear market than in the previous three cycles, and assessed that the likelihood of a decline as deep as those seen at past bottoms is diminishing.

In a chart shared by the on-chain analytics firm, Bitcoin is about 350 days past its cycle peak and 30% below that peak. According to Glassnode, the previous three bear markets had suffered losses more than twice as deep at the same stage, and were just weeks away from reaching their bottoms.

The company also views the price recovery in the current cycle as part of this divergence. The 30% figure is not Bitcoin’s largest loss during the cycle; it is the distance between the price at the time of the post and the peak.

Can previous bottoms offer guidance this time?

The chart compares the current period with the cycles that followed the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks. The previous three bear-market bottoms formed about 365–415 days after their respective peaks. For that reason, the chart separately highlights the next 90-day period; it does not offer a definitive date forecast for a new bottom.

Glassnode’s assessment is that the four-year cycle pattern investors have grown accustomed to is not playing out the same way in this bear market. According to the company, Bitcoin’s recovery after a more limited loss makes a decline to the depths of previous cycle bottoms less likely with each passing week.

This interpretation does not mean that Bitcoin will no longer fall or that the bear market is definitively over. The difference highlighted by the analysis is that a loss as deep as those seen in previous cycles has not yet occurred this time, and that the price is currently recovering.