Bitcoin Is Rising, but the Expected U.S. Signal Hasn’t Arrived: Even a New High May Not Be Enough!

As Bitcoin demand indicators recover, CryptoQuant says that even a new price high may not be enough to sustain a rally if U.S. spot demand fails to join the move.

CryptoQuant’s October 2 analysis highlights the divergence between the recovery in Bitcoin’s price and U.S. investors’ appetite for buying. On-chain data shows that demand contraction is easing rapidly, but the U.S. spot market is not providing equally strong confirmation.

Demand contraction eased by 81,000 BTC in one week

The 30-day apparent demand indicator rose from approximately minus 182,000 BTC on September 24 to minus 101,000 BTC on October 1. That represents an improvement of approximately 81,000 BTC in one week.

This movement shows that the contraction in demand has slowed considerably. However, the indicator remains below zero, and the recovery needs to strengthen further before demand turns positive.

The expected buying support from the U.S. has yet to arrive

The analysis’s second focus, the Coinbase Premium Index, remains in negative territory. CryptoQuant interprets this as a sign that spot buying pressure from U.S. investors has yet to recover significantly.

As a result, the price is rising while buyers are not strengthening at the same pace. Despite the improvement in the overall demand indicator, this shortfall in the U.S. market is one of the main risks being watched for the rally’s sustainability.

These two indicators will remain in focus even after a new high

The analysis emphasizes that even if Bitcoin surpasses its previous high, it may become harder to sustain the rally if Coinbase Premium and on-chain spot demand do not strengthen alongside the price.

For stronger confirmation, apparent demand is expected to move into positive territory and Coinbase Premium to recover. Such a combination would indicate that the price move is supported not only by rising prices but also by buying demand.