Bitcoin’s First Such Divergence Since 2015: The Signal From Past Bottoms Failed to Appear This Time!

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have collectively remained above their cost basis throughout this cycle, and the move into the loss zone seen at the bottoms of previous bear markets has not occurred this time.

According to an analysis dated October 4 by Glassnode, the LTH-MVRV indicator, which compares long-term holders’ market value with their cost basis, bottomed above 1 in this cycle and has started to rise again. This pattern differs from what was observed in previous bear markets going back at least to 2015.

Previous bottoms saw a move into the loss zone

A level of 1 represents the breakeven threshold for the indicator. A drop below this level means that the market value of the Bitcoin held by the long-term holder group has fallen below its total cost basis.

The chart shared shows the indicator falling below this threshold around the bottoms of 2015–2016, 2018–2019, and 2022. In this cycle, however, the long-term holder group has recovered without entering the same loss zone.

What is different this time?

The key detail is not only that the indicator has started rising again, but also that the breakeven threshold held during the decline. In previous bear markets, the group’s total asset value fell below its cost basis, while this time it remained above it.

This measure reflects the group as a whole; it does not show that every long-term holder is individually in profit. Glassnode’s comparison highlights how the current cycle has differed so far, but it does not, on its own, guarantee that a lower bottom will not form from here.