Bitcoin’s Recovery Wasn’t Enough: The Last Losing Cohort Has Its Eyes on $88,000
Among Bitcoin’s annual buyer cohorts, 2025 investors are the only group still below their average cost basis, while the breakeven level of around $88,000 could pose a potential resistance to further gains.
According to Checkonchain data cited by CoinDesk, the average cost basis for investors who bought Bitcoin in 2025 is around $88,000. Bitcoin climbed as high as $87,500 in September but did not reach that threshold, and fell back below $84,000 on Wednesday, October 7, as this article was being prepared.
As a result, the recovery was not enough to bring even the last annual cohort into profit on average. The analysis notes that some investors may want to close out their positions to recoup their losses as the price approaches their cost basis. Those sales could create resistance around $88,000.
Why do breakeven levels matter for price direction?
Average purchase prices for annual cohorts have also served as support and resistance in the past. When Bitcoin reached the approximately $82,100 cost basis of 2024 buyers in May, it faced resistance and then fell as low as $60,000. It did not break above that threshold until August.
The cost basis of 2023 buyers, now around $65,000, mostly acted as support during Bitcoin’s decline in 2026. In February, as Bitcoin approached $60,000, this cohort’s cost basis was also around $60,000.
The average cost basis for 2026 buyers is around $73,500. This cohort generally moved into profit after Bitcoin climbed above that threshold at the end of August.
ETF investors’ cost basis could provide support
The average cost basis of money invested in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is around $82,300. By this measure, ETF investors recently moved back into profit for the first time this year.
If Bitcoin’s pullback continues, $82,300 will be watched as potential support, while the 2025 buyers’ $88,000 cost basis stands out above. The significance of both levels stems from investors’ decisions to sell or add to their positions at breakeven.