Ethereum Researcher Warns Bitcoin and Ethereum: “Months, Not Years”!
Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake urged preparations for a worst-case scenario in which the signature security used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could be broken, and recommended that large asset holders consider moving to new addresses.
In comments reported by The Block, Drake argued that the industry should plan for a preparedness process it calls “shelter mode.” The researcher is concerned that the ECDSA digital signature algorithm, which proves that a transaction was approved by the holder of the correct private key, could be broken sooner than expected.
Drake used the phrase “months, not years” to describe the worst-case scenario. This assessment is not an announcement of an actual security vulnerability or an official timeline from the Ethereum Foundation, but the researcher’s personal risk scenario. Drake also stressed that users should not act in panic, as rushed transactions could lead to greater losses.
The concern is not limited to quantum computers
Drake raises the possibility of a mathematical breakthrough that could make it possible to find private keys quickly using existing hardware, such as a large group of GPUs. In this scenario, the threat could emerge even before quantum computers become powerful enough to break widely used cryptography.
The researcher cited progress in AI-assisted mathematical research among the reasons for his warning. Referring to OpenAI’s publication of 722 mathematical studies produced by an internal model, he argued that new mathematical discoveries could pose a risk to elliptic-curve-based cryptography.
He urges large holders and exchanges to prepare
Drake’s recommendation is for large and technically sophisticated asset holders to first consider moving most of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction and whose public keys have not been exposed. Since an address’s public key can be revealed when it signs a transaction, he recommends moving any remaining balance to a new address after signing.
The researcher also called on Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether to consider stronger protection methods for their cold wallets. Project Eleven’s Bitcoin Risq List, which he cited, tracks more than 14 million Bitcoin addresses that hold balances and have exposed public keys.
Current guidance does not call for urgent action by users
The current Ethereum guidance cited in the report says quantum computers cannot break the network’s cryptography today and that users do not need to take action. Drake’s appeal, by contrast, is a personal recommendation to prepare in advance while also accounting for possible new mathematical methods.
Drake says he prefers security methods based on hash functions over the long term. He also sees the hash-based cryptography and mathematical verification work in Ethereum’s draft roadmap as part of this preparation.