They Predicted Trump’s Pick in Advance and Expect a Nearly 55x Payout: Platform Launches Probe!
Kalshi has opened an investigation into three trades that correctly predicted Donald Trump’s new White House press secretary before the news broke and are expected to pay out a total of $9,600 on investments of about $173.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction platform Kalshi is investigating trades on Trump’s selection of Katie Zacharia as press secretary. A platform spokesperson confirmed the investigation but declined to comment on the details.
Public trading data identified at least three orders placed before reports emerged that Zacharia would be selected. The trades cost a total of about $173, with an expected combined payout of about $9,600 when the market closes. That amounts to about 55 times the amount invested.
Two trades were placed about 19 minutes before the news
An order worth about $19, placed at around 22:42 U.S. Eastern Time on Thursday, is expected to pay out $1,896. Two orders worth about $74 and $80, placed at around 13:41 on Friday, are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023, respectively.
The New York Times and other outlets began reporting that Zacharia had been selected at around 14:00 on Friday. That means about 19 minutes separated the last two trades from the first reports.
In the days before the news, Kalshi priced the likelihood of Zacharia getting the role at only around 1 percent. Trump also announced in a Truth Social post on Friday afternoon that Zacharia would replace Karoline Leavitt.
Whether insider information was used is under investigation
Although the timing of the trades has drawn attention, no definitive finding that insider information was used has been announced. The identities of Kalshi traders are not publicly visible, though the platform keeps records of users’ identities.
The investigation follows debate over the use of nonpublic information to make profits in prediction markets. Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, reached a settlement in August in a CFTC filing concerning allegations that he traded on Kalshi after seeing Trump’s prepared speeches.
Perez agreed to repay $107,539 in gains and pay a $65,000 fine. Kalshi also began requiring users who trade in markets it considers to carry a high risk of insider trading or manipulation to disclose their employers in June.