Glassnode said Bitcoin realized losses among long-term investors have fallen 85%, while ETF outflows and selling by investors who bought at higher prices are making a recovery more difficult.
According to Glassnode’s October 14 analysis, downside pressure on Bitcoin has eased, but fresh demand is needed for a sustained rally. Realized losses among long-term investors have fallen by about 85% since their peak on August 12. Meanwhile, investors who bought at higher prices over the past two years may start selling when the price approaches their cost basis.
The volume of coins changing hands at a profit has now reached about four times the volume changing hands at a loss. At the June low, coins moving at a loss outnumbered those moving at a profit by about 12 to 1. The analysis finds this shift similar to past recovery periods, while weakening ETF demand stands out in the short-term picture.
Why is $88,000 important for Bitcoin’s rally?
The average cost basis for investors who bought in the past 6-12 months is about $88,000, while for those who bought 1-2 years ago it is about $100,000. After Bitcoin approached the first group’s cost basis in January, it lost more than a third of its value; after reaching the second group’s cost basis in May, it fell by about a quarter.
That makes $88,000 more than just a technical level: it is an area where investors nearing breakeven may sell. Liquidations of short positions in the same area could briefly push the price higher. But according to Glassnode, such a move is unlikely to last unless spot demand strengthens.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $3 billion in net inflows between September 21 and October 6. According to data tracked through October 12 in the report, however, there were about $760 million in net outflows from October 7 onward. A return to steady ETF inflows, along with a daily close above $88,000, could signal that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure above that level.
The $80,000 area is in focus below
Bitcoin fell below the U.S. spot ETF cost basis of about $81,500 intraday on October 8 and 13, but closed both days above that line. According to the daily data used in the analysis, closes remained above this level from September 21 through October 13.
The largest cluster of buy orders in Binance’s spot order book is at $80,000. This means order-book support and the on-chain cost-basis indicator overlap in the $80,000-$81,500 range. If this area gives way, liquidations of long positions just below $80,000 could accelerate the decline; further down, the average cost basis of active investors, at about $78,000, is being watched.
There is one notable difference from previous bear markets in the long-term outlook: in this cycle, Bitcoin has not posted a daily close below its realized price, which is calculated using the prices at which coins in circulation last moved. In 2018 and 2022, the price stayed below this level for months. Glassnode views this resilience as positive for a recovery, while emphasizing that ETF demand and the selling waiting at higher levels will be decisive in the short term.
Not investment advice.