Standard Chartered said stablecoin use continues to rise even as it delays its $2 trillion market forecast from 2028 to 2030 amid a slowdown in stablecoin supply growth.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, said in an October 14 report that they were keeping their target size but expected it to take two more years to reach that level. Stablecoin supply has remained between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past 12 months; the current total is approximately $309 billion.
According to Kendrick, weak crypto market activity is behind the slowdown. The analyst sees it as a result of the market cycle rather than a lasting structural deterioration: In the past, periods when supply remained flat or declined were followed by renewed growth as the crypto market recovered.
Supply isn’t growing, but the same stablecoins are being used more
While the amount of stablecoins in circulation has remained flat, transfers tell a different story. Monthly on-chain transfer value rose from around $4 trillion in 2025 to an average approaching $10 trillion in 2026. In May, it reached a monthly record of $19 trillion.
Velocity, which shows how many times an average dollar of stablecoin changes hands in a month, rose from 15 last year to around 30 this year. In other words, increased use does not require a proportionate increase in new stablecoin supply.
This divergence is also clear between USDT and USDC. USDT’s monthly velocity has remained around 7, while USDC’s has risen from 45 last year to around 80 this year. Kendrick attributes the difference to USDT being used primarily to accumulate dollars in developing countries, while USDC is used for payments, financial transactions, and early payment applications between AI agents.
Banks could change the competitive landscape
Kendrick expects the fiercest competition ahead in payments and financial transactions in developed countries. Among the initiatives highlighted in the report are M^0, which provides stablecoin infrastructure, and the A+ network, which aims to let banks issue a shared stablecoin and retain the income from its reserves.
Regulation is another key uncertainty surrounding the bank’s $2 trillion forecast. According to Kendrick, if other countries adopt rules similar to the GENIUS Act in the US, stablecoins issued by banks and multiple institutions working together could gain a stronger competitive position. The report identifies the expected January 2027 implementation of US regulations and their adoption as a global model as one of the main risks to USDT’s dominance in developing countries.
Not investment advice.