While the price of XRP fell about 15% between October 4 and 17, total reserves on exchanges approached their highest levels in a year, and leveraged positions on Binance shrank.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the amount of XRP held on all exchanges reached 11.81 billion on October 17. This level represents reserves higher than approximately 99% of observations over the past 365 days. By contrast, the dollar value of open interest in Binance futures and the estimated leverage ratio declined.
Long positions were liquidated as the price fell
XRP open interest on Binance fell from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17, a decline of 15.8%. Over the same period, the price of XRP fell from $1.52 to $1.29.
On October 7–8, long positions saw a total of $25.7 million in liquidations. This was the largest two-day cluster of long liquidations during the two weeks examined. The estimated leverage ratio fell from 0.205 to 0.170, while the funding rate was negative on six of the past 11 days. The analysis links this pattern to the unwinding of existing long positions rather than a renewed buildup of bullish positions.
Why does accumulation on exchanges look different from Binance?
Although total reserves are near a one-year peak, Binance’s own reserves are not as high by the same measure. The 2.67 billion XRP held on the exchange is higher than approximately 30% of Binance’s observations over the past year. The difference between the two figures indicates that the accumulation in total reserves is concentrated on other exchanges.
Inflows to Binance are nevertheless continuing. An average daily net inflow of 9.3 million XRP was recorded over the past week, while net inflows on October 13 and 14 were 22 million and 29 million XRP, respectively. Meanwhile, whale transaction volume fell 44% week over week, and the amount of tokens transferred declined 37%.
We previously covered XRP whale transfers to Binance. The new analysis also shows how leveraged trading and whale activity are changing alongside the supply accumulating on exchanges.
What could determine XRP’s next price move?
CryptoQuant notes that high exchange balances, together with falling leverage and weakening whale activity, have historically been observed ahead of periods when the price fluctuated within a certain range. According to the analysis, a key factor for the next directional move will be whether XRP held on exchanges is sold or withdrawn.
It is also possible that some of the XRP moved to exchanges was used as collateral or for hedging during the decline, but this explanation has not yet been confirmed. The analysis’s main finding is that supply on exchanges has not declined at the same pace as leveraged positions have shrunk.
Not investment advice.