Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, centering its revised calculation on growth in the store-of-value custody and institutional investment markets.
The crypto asset manager’s 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Expectations report, published on October 28, forecasts an annualized return of 34.3% over the next decade. The company’s base-case target of $1.6 million is based on assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of certain markets.
Two changes behind the higher Bitcoin target
Bitwise left its expectations for Bitcoin’s future market share unchanged from last year. Instead, it raised its estimate of the size of the global store-of-value market in 2036 from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and its estimate of the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
The base case assumes Bitcoin will capture 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. Applying the same share assumptions to larger markets therefore pushed the price target higher.
Based on Boston Consulting Group’s estimate of approximately $147 trillion in assets managed by institutions, the company calculates that allocating 1% to 5% to Bitcoin over the next decade could create $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in potential demand. The report puts the annual value of new Bitcoin supply from mining at approximately $14 billion.
2036 scenarios range from $131,000 to $3.67 million
In Bitwise’s bearish scenario, Bitcoin captures 2.5% of the store-of-value market and reaches $130,686 in 2036. In the bullish scenario, that share rises to 50%, and the price forecast reaches $3.67 million. The wide gap between the scenarios shows how sensitive the outcome is to adoption assumptions.
The report’s 34.3% annualized return forecast is about five times the average 6.7% forecast for U.S. equities, calculated from projections by JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard. It is also about three times the 10.8% forecast for private equity investments.
Bitwise expects lower volatility
The company lowered its average volatility estimate for the next decade from last year’s 32.9% to 27.8%. Research Director Ryan Rasmussen said sharp declines in Bitcoin could continue, but the company expects these fluctuations to ease as institutional adoption deepens.
Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan acknowledged that much of the recent demand for stores of value has flowed into gold and that buying in Bitcoin ETFs has slowed. Nevertheless, he said institutions have continued to increase their Bitcoin investments during the downturn, and Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market has risen from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.
The report says that after falling to approximately $58,000 in June, Bitcoin recovered by about 40% and rose above $80,000. Bitwise puts the decline from the peak above $126,000 in October 2025 at approximately 53%, comparing it with drops of 86%, 84%, and 77% in previous major cycles to point to a more limited correction.
Not investment advice.