Glassnode’s latest analysis notes that Bitcoin has failed to stay above $85,000, while $42 million in buy orders on Binance was found concentrated at lower prices.
The report, published on October 28, focuses on the $84,000–$85,000 range, which Bitcoin has repeatedly encountered throughout the year. Since January, it has closed above $85,000 on only five days; the price has failed to hold above that threshold for more than three consecutive days.
The price and order book data in the analysis is from October 27. Bitcoin rose as high as $87,100 in September, but despite that rally, it was unable to turn the range into lasting support.
Buyers Are Waiting Below $80,000
Buy orders around $80,000 in Binance’s spot order book had built up again following the October 15 drop. However, those orders in the area were hit again during the October 24 pullback and were not replenished to the same extent this time. The report puts the total value of buy orders remaining at $80,000 at $3.4 million.
A stronger accumulation of orders shifted to the $78,000–$79,000 range. The total value of orders, which was about $24 million in mid-October, reached $42 million in the report’s measurement. Glassnode sees this area as the first level where buyers could step in during a pullback.
The amounts in the order book are not completed purchases; they are buy orders that can be changed or canceled. Whether the area turns into support depends on whether this demand remains in place when the price reaches it.
Why Could Sellers Gain Strength at $85,000?
According to the report, long-term investors hold approximately 4 million BTC whose last-moved price was in the $85,000–$118,000 range. As the price approaches $85,000, some investors looking to break even may turn to selling, creating pressure on the rally.
Glassnode sees consecutive daily closes above $85,000 as the first step toward turning the range back into support. For stronger confirmation, it maintains the conditions from its previous assessment: a daily close above $87,500 and repeated ETF inflows accompanied by rising trading volume.
Which Levels Are Being Watched Below?
In the report, Bitcoin was just below $81,500, the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETFs. Reclaiming this threshold is seen as important for ETF investors to return to profit based on their average cost.
Further down is $77,900, the level that tracks the average cost basis of active investors. If Bitcoin records a daily close below it, short-term investors’ average cost basis of $75,800 becomes the next support level.
The decline in one-month realized volatility to around 25% was another point highlighted in the report. Since 2015, Bitcoin has been calmer than this on only about 5% of days. Glassnode is watching the October 28 Fed decision as a potential catalyst to break this compression; similar periods of calm in the past have been followed by both declines and rallies.
Not investment advice.