The simultaneous downturn in short- and long-term trends on Bitcoin’s daily chart is strengthening the warning of a decline, while the historical tendency to rally after U.S. midterm elections points in the opposite direction.
According to CoinDesk’s Nov. 3 technical analysis, Bitcoin’s price fell below both groups of averages in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator. The short-term averages moved below the long-term ones, while the long-term group also began to contract and slope downward.
What is strengthening the bearish signal?
The indicator, developed by trader Daryl Guppy, brings together average prices from different time periods in two groups. The short-term group is used to track the tendency of traders, while the long-term group is used to track the tendency of investors who hold positions for longer periods.
Although the downward crossover of the short-term averages signals selling pressure, this trend can change quickly. The detail highlighted in the analysis is that the long-term averages are also turning in the same direction: This pattern is interpreted as a sign that buyers are not acting as strongly as before.
It also preceded a drop below $60,000 in the past
A similar pattern formed at the end of May was followed in the first week of June by Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000. After a crossover in late January, the price also fell from around $90,000 to around $62,000.
However, there are also counterexamples in the indicator’s history. Despite a bearish signal in August and September 2025, the price soon rose again. Therefore, previous losses do not establish a definitive price target for the current outlook.
Midterm election history paints a different picture
The latest technical warning comes at a time of significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, signs of weakening U.S. demand, and a search for downside protection in the options market. The analysis interprets this picture as investors preparing for deeper losses.
Historical data, on the other hand, shows that Bitcoin tends to rise after U.S. midterm elections. Thus, the short-term technical outlook and post-election historical performance point in different directions. The price’s direction over the coming days will show which of these two expectations takes precedence.
In a CryptoQuant analysis we previously covered, exchange transfers at a loss by short-term holders were examined; this assessment, by contrast, looks at the trend change in price averages.
Not investment advice.