Bitcoin and Ethereum Volume on This Platform Under Scrutiny: The Same Amounts Keep Repeating!
CoinDesk’s analysis of Kalshi trading records showed that more than half of the Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures volume examined was concentrated in specific recurring dollar amounts.
The analysis focuses on Kalshi’s perpetual futures markets, which are known for prediction markets. The pattern emerging in these contracts, which do not expire, raises questions about how broad a participant base is behind the high volume. However, publicly available data does not reveal the accounts behind the trades or their purposes.
Similar amounts accounted for more than half of the volume examined
In the Ethereum trades CoinDesk examined between September 17 and 20, trades within $2 of $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million sample volume. On the Bitcoin side, two trade sizes of approximately $2,500 and $5,000 represented 54% of the $8.5 million sample.
These percentages cover the records examined, not all trades on the platform. For Ethereum, 3,450 trades across 23 separate one-hour periods during the four-day period were analyzed; 1,406 of them occurred within $2 of $5,499. The 57% represents the share of dollar-denominated volume, not the number of trades.
Similar behavior was observed over a broader time period. CoinDesk found that in 43 of 46 separate one-hour samples selected from June 19–September 20, Ethereum trades clustered around specific dollar amounts. The dominant trade size accounted for approximately 45% of the value in these samples; its share exceeded 50% on 15 different dates.
Consistent with automated trading, but not proof of misconduct on its own
In the pattern, the number of contracts is adjusted as the price changes, while the targeted dollar amount of the trade remains largely unchanged. The targets’ shifting over time from approximately $4,999 to $3,999, $4,499, and $5,499 is consistent with automated strategies updating their trade-size settings. This does not mean that a single, unchanging amount was used throughout the entire period.
In a separate data snapshot from Monday, the Ethereum market’s 24-hour volume was listed as approximately 93 million contracts, while open interest was approximately 1.5 million contracts. CoinDesk reported a volume/open interest ratio of 61 using unrounded data; the median ratio was approximately 8 across the 20 Kalshi perpetual futures markets with open interest, and 26 for Bitcoin.
High turnover or repeated trade sizes are not proof of wash trading on their own. Publicly available records do not establish whether the trades stemmed from ordinary market making, other algorithmic strategies, or an effort to benefit from incentives.
What was Kalshi’s response?
On September 16, Kalshi introduced its fee and market-maker rebate program for certain firms. However, because $5,499 Ethereum trades were also seen in August, the new program does not explain the pattern’s initial emergence; it may have affected the cost of subsequent trades.
In response to a claim of inflated volume made by an investor posting on X under the name Beni, Kalshi’s head of crypto said that one of the charts used in the claim covered prediction markets, not perpetual futures. The executive also said that crypto prediction markets did not offer trading-fee rebates and that incentives on the regulated exchange were required to be disclosed to the public.
This response did not explain which accounts made the repeated Ethereum futures trades. CoinDesk’s questions about participant identities, account relationships, and the structure of the trades were still unanswered when the article was published.