Predictions about the short-term price movements of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies pushed the weekly combined notional trading volume of crypto-linked contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket to a record $2.7 billion.
According to a Bloomberg report cited by Wu Blockchain, data compiled by a user on Dune Analytics showed that trading in crypto contracts on the two platforms reached a new high last week. The main source of this volume was trades predicting which direction Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would move in the short term.
Crypto price predictions rank behind sports
Crypto-linked contracts rank second behind sports in trading volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Rather than buying and selling coins, users trade contracts on whether a specific price outcome will occur.
The notional volume measured in the record represents the total value of contracts traded, not the amount of new money entering the platforms. The $2.7 billion figure therefore shows the scale reached by prediction trading on crypto prices.
Crypto exchanges are also moving into this market
As spot trading volumes decline, crypto exchanges are also expanding their activity in prediction markets. Coinbase’s product in this area uses Kalshi’s infrastructure.
However, legal challenges to sports contracts continue in some U.S. states. This uncertainty could affect how quickly crypto exchanges seek to grow in prediction markets.
Not investment advice.