Bitcoin Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Leverage Remains High: Liquidation Risk Ahead of US Inflation

While trading volume in the Bitcoin market has fallen to its lowest level in three years, the high amount of open interest increases the risk of sharp liquidation moves ahead of US inflation data.

According to K33 Research, the stagnation in Bitcoin perpetual futures has become pronounced following months of sideways price action. The 30-day average trading volume for BTC/USDT contracts on Binance and Bybit fell to $10.8 billion as of August 10.

This level was higher than only 5 percent of the 30-day averages recorded since January 2021. Lower volumes were primarily seen in late 2022 and 2023. A similar picture emerged in the spot Bitcoin market. Average daily spot trading volume has decreased by 18 percent to $1.8 billion over the last week.

Leverage risk rising in the Bitcoin market

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that the low trading volume has put the market into “hibernation.” Bitcoin’s seven-day volatility also dropped to 0.6 percent on Sunday, reaching its lowest value since December 2025.

In contrast, open interest in perpetual futures remained high throughout the summer. Averaging around 300,000 BTC between June 1 and August 11, open interest hovered above the 2026 average of 288,000 BTC. K33 reported that high leverage and moderate funding rates leave the price vulnerable to sharp liquidation-driven moves in either direction.

Markets are now focused on the US July Consumer Price Index, to be released Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET. According to a Reuters poll, headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.1 percent monthly and 3.4 percent annually, while core inflation is expected to rise 0.2 percent monthly and 2.5 percent annually.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a roughly 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting. Bitcoin has been trading in the $60,000-$80,000 range for about six months.