Bitcoin’s $1.3 Million Target Questioned: 30-Year Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%

Bitcoin’s $1.3 million target is being called into question as the 30-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% and a head-and-shoulders breakdown emerges in the BTC/30Y ratio.

Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within the next decade, a forecast that echoes previous targets shared by Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood.

Such predictions are typically based on the assumption that Bitcoin will capture a portion of the gold market or attract trillion-dollar capital pools like global pension funds. However, these calculations often fail to sufficiently account for the opportunity cost—the yield forfeited on US Treasuries by holding money in Bitcoin.

Interest Rate Obstacles for Bitcoin’s $1.3 Million Target

The 30-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% this year, reaching its highest level since 2007. This means that every dollar held in non-yielding assets like Bitcoin misses out on a potential yield of approximately 5%. Although Bitcoin’s spot price in dollar terms rose to $126,000 in 2025, surpassing the previous cycle’s peak of around $70,000, its price adjusted for the 30-year bond yield failed to surpass the 2021 peak for the first time.

The BTC/30Y ratio has also fallen below the neckline of a three-peak head-and-shoulders pattern. This structure, where the middle peak is the highest, signals a decline when the support line between the two retracements is broken. According to a study by Thomas Bulkowski covering over 2,800 trades, the pattern has a failure rate of 19%, with an average decline of about 16% following confirmation.

This outlook doesn’t mean Bitcoin cannot rise permanently in dollar terms. However, for seven-figure price targets to materialize, the interest rate environment needs to become as supportive as it was during the 2020-21 period; the current outlook, however, is moving in the opposite direction.