An analysis shared on CryptoQuant warned that a sharper decline in stocks while U.S. Treasury yields remain high could deepen selling in Bitcoin.
The analysis highlighted that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are losing momentum as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches multi-year highs. Since the stock market has yet to see a clear correction, the possibility that another wave of selling could spill over into the crypto market was flagged as a risk.
The key risk for Bitcoin lies in the stock market
At the center of the assessment is the possibility that weakness in stocks could turn into a larger decline. In this scenario, Bitcoin could also be dragged lower alongside stocks.
The analysis compares today’s picture with two past periods: the final months of 2018 and January-April 2025. In both cases, declines in Treasury yields from their peaks were accompanied by selling pressure in stocks and Bitcoin.
What happened after similar conditions in 2018 and 2025?
In the final months of 2018, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from its peak while the S&P 500 came under pressure. Bitcoin’s already weak outlook also deteriorated, and selling deepened toward the end of the year.
From January to April 2025, Treasury yields fell from their January peaks. The market turmoil in April pushed both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 sharply lower.
Although the events that triggered these periods were different, the analysis views the loss of strength in both markets amid high Treasury yields as a warning for today as well. The key expectation here is not a definite forecast of a decline, but rather the possibility of a deeper correction in Bitcoin if stock selling intensifies.
Not investment advice.