Bitcoin could top $100,000 by year-end, according to Bitwise, while LO:TECH expects a range of $85,000–$95,000. The two disagree on when the obstacles of interest rates and inflation will ease.
Analysts speaking to CoinDesk believe institutional demand could support Bitcoin over the long term, but they do not agree on whether that support will turn into a strong rally before the end of 2026. At the time the source article was published, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,500.
Bitwise Sees $100,000-Plus as Possible
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, expects Bitcoin to end the year at a higher price, potentially above $100,000. He bases this view on institutional demand through ETFs and corporate purchases, a shift toward assets that can preserve their value amid inflation and rising public debt, and clearer crypto regulations.
Rasmussen nevertheless expects volatility around a possible Fed rate hike in late October and the U.S. midterm elections in November. He believes a strong rally will be difficult amid this uncertainty, but that higher prices could come into view once the market gets past this period.
Do Rate Expectations Need to Change for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000?
Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, has a more cautious base case: Bitcoin trading in the $85,000–$95,000 range toward year-end. According to McCarthy, a return above $100,000 would require expectations of a rate hike in December to give way to expectations that rates will be held steady; falling oil prices and inflation should also support this shift.
The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, while market pricing cited by McCarthy put the odds of another hike in December at around 75%. Data released on October 14, showing consumer prices rising 0.6% month over month and core prices rising 0.3%, also made the outlook more challenging. More than half of the headline increase came from gasoline prices.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, also points to the tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. If price increases slow, the Fed may have more room to respond to weakness in the labor market; if inflationary pressure persists, tight monetary policy could continue to weigh on Bitcoin.
Short Positions Could Close if Bitcoin Breaks Above $90,000
Luca Invernizzi, a senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura’s crypto subsidiary, is not convinced by the rebound from summer lows, citing low volume, weakening ETF inflows, and slowing corporate purchases. However, he views the substantial clearing of leveraged positions in Bitcoin more positively.
McCarthy also notes that bullish positioning is now less crowded. Funding rates in perpetual futures hovering at or below zero and the fact that August’s rally came more from short covering than new long positions are among the signs of this shift in positioning.
According to Invernizzi, a decisive break above $90,000 could trigger a new wave of short covering by investors betting on a decline. The resulting buying could also support further price gains.
New Buying Is Needed for a Sustained Rally
A Citi research note says the total crypto market capitalization rose from around $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter, institutional ETF flows turned positive, and activity in exchanges, stablecoins, and digital asset infrastructure recovered.
Butterfill notes, however, that inflows slowed after $11.1 billion flowed into investment products from mid-July onward. He attributes this to uncertainty rather than a deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals and emphasizes that new buying must continue for a sustained rally.
According to the analyst, concerns about public finances could increase demand for Bitcoin over the medium term. But for that view to translate into a significant price increase, investors need to be seen allocating capital to Bitcoin regularly.
Not investment advice.