Ethereum Selling Pressure Hits Saturation Point: Binance Data Signals Historic Bottom at 35% Level
Ethereum’s NUPL data on Binance has dropped to -0.35, reaching historical bottom regions and providing a strong signal that selling pressure has reached saturation.
Ethereum (ETH) on-chain data, closely followed by investors, shows that the price has reached a critical threshold. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric, calculated for ETH supply on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has returned to the -0.35 level. This data reveals that the net unrealized loss carried by the Ethereum supply on the exchange is approximately 35% of its current market value.
The NUPL metric measures the profit and loss balance of assets held by a specific group of investors. A negative value symbolizes that the supply has fallen below its cost basis, meaning it has dropped below investors’ entry prices. Looking at historical data, the -0.35 level was previously seen at the end of 2019, March 2020, during the 2022 bottom periods, and the 2025 corrections. These periods, marked by red zones in the data, typically represent capitulation phases where the price is nearing its lowest levels.
Saturation in Selling Pressure and the Elimination of Weak Hands
Reaching this level means that selling pressure in the market has now matured. As investors most sensitive to price drops—defined as “weak hands”—withdraw from the market, the remaining group becomes less willing to sell at low prices. This situation sets the stage for the price to stabilize if demand increases even slightly alongside a decrease in selling appetite.
Historical Recurrences and Risks to Watch
Past cycles also remind us that this signal does not always bring an immediate rally. In some cases, the first breach of the -0.35 threshold can occur just before the price makes a lower low or retests the level.
If the Ethereum price maintains its recent lows while the NUPL data begins an upward recovery, this would strengthen the bottom signal. However, further deterioration in the data and new price lows could indicate that the capitulation process is not yet complete. For investors, this on-chain data continues to be a critical indicator for measuring the market’s level of financial stress.